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Tuesday, May 17, 2016

1.37 million ‘registered voters’ discrepancy observed in Unofficial Results reporting operations!

May 10, 2016
by benign0
A 9th May 2016 Inquirer report put the total number of registered voters at 54,363,844 as quoted from the Commission on Elections (COMELEC). But then on its Inquirer Unofficial Results: 2016 Philippine Elections page also hosted on the Inquirer.net site, it indicates that the number of registered voters is 55,735,757.
Two major news networks are are quoting the latter 55.73m figure on their real-time unofficial resuts pages, the Inquirer (referred to earlier) and GMA Network News on its own unofficial results portal Eleksyon 2016 Results.
The content of the two sites have been cached in Google and a search there using the text string “55735757 voters” yields the following output (boldface formatting added by author for emphasis):
Vote PH 2016 | INQUIRER.net
15,295,515 VOTES. 38.68 % … 41,752,443 VOTES COUNTED (74.91%).55,735,757 registered voters. JavaScript chart by amCharts 3.20.5 JS map by …

Duterte, Marcos off to early lead in unofficial tally | News | GMA News …
17 hours ago – … or 18,823,706 of 55,735,757 registered voters), Duterte had 7,034,664 votes. The results do not include votes from the overseas and local …

PH Elections 2016: Leni Robredo Set To Beat Martial Law Successor …
The Inquirer reported that almost 55,735,757 registered voters have cast their votes in 2016. As of this time, Robredo and Marcos has a very close competition …
The following screencap taken 1422H AEST 10th May 2016 is provided below as evidence.
So there are two obvious questions:
Which of the two figures is the actual number of registered voters?
If both are right and the smaller figure, 54.36m, was as of the 9th May Inquirerreport; then,
What accounts for the 1,371,913 increase in “registered voters” from the 9th May to the 10th May as reported in the Inquirer and GMA News“unofficial results” portals?
The plot thickens. Questions about the almost algorithmic way with which Liberal Party vice presidential candidate Leni Robredo chipped away at the initial 1-million-vote lead of rival candidate Bongbong Marcos over several hours since the voting closed has attracted the attention of many observers. Facebook Netizen Benjamin Vallejo Jr plotted the progressive decrease of Marcos’s lead over Robredo over time and found an almost perfect linear correlation and posted it on his Facebook profile (see copy of the image below). The correlation plotted a straight path downward trajectory for Marcos’s lead. “Di kapanipaniwala!” observed Vallejo, noting the perfectly-straight line.
Statistician and Ateneo de Manila faculty member David Yap also closely monitored the movement of Marcos’s lead over Robredo and arrived at the same conclusion independently. Like Vallejo, he also posted the results of his analysis on his Facebook profile
Lets Be FAIR
79.65% 530,043
80.40% 490,310
82.08% 421,499
82.71% 389,818
83.84% 345,373
84.43% 322,584
84.90% 293,957
85.78% 248,466
Okay, I’m calling it now – by 92% to 93% BBM and Leni will be tied. I’ve been tracking the returns and the increments make the pattern so obvious. 40k every 1%
Starting from the 80% mark, BBM’s lead has been dwindling by 40k per 1%. Ang linis ng progression [translated: “the progression is so consistent”].
What is going on?
This is a question being asked by many observers who, among other things, are questioning how Robredo could have possibly attracted these numbers considering the poor way with which most most voters regard the Liberal Party and the character of the constituencies she supposedly won.
Suffice to say, this is a developing story and more information will come to light and, hopefully, more analytics will be performed in the spirit of transparency.
Stay tuned!

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