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Monday, April 4, 2016

What’s Expected For The Philippines After May 9th?

What’s Expected For The Philippines After May 9th?

John Goodman - AvatarWith roughly a month remaining for the future of the Philippines. I decided to put down my thoughts regarding a number of possible, post election scenarios. Since the beginning of 2016, almost every Candidate – with the exception of Miriam Defensor Santiago – and their wagon load of followers, have been flooding Facebook, Twitter, and God knows what other social networking groups with their endless barrage of pro/anti somebody garbage, rhetoric, and self styled analytical bullshit.
Yet somewhere in this mess, I managed to spot a pattern. And sadly, it wasn’t a pretty sight. Both the candidates, and their devoted followers had revealed that the nation was in actuality, far more divided than had previously been thought. And this fact made me come to realize that things could turn seriously ugly next month.

Scenario #1 – Pre-Election Nightmare: In light of such recent events as Manila International Airport experiencing a brownout of its own. The Kidapawan Massacre. School fires and whatnot. I decided to add this possibility, and make it the first option. So hang on to your hats.
Current President BS Aquino will declare Martial Law. And will use what now appear to be carefully staged problems, such as those above, to justify it being enacted. And in doing so, will nullify the coming elections. And for the Oligarchy? It’ll be just what the doctor ordered. At least for the time being. Because once the dust settles from this amazingly stupid decision. One of the first things to happen is this little item known as Capitol Flight. And in case you don’t know what that is? It’s when a great many of the foreign investors already doing business here. Pack their shit and leave. And contrary to whatever bullshit the current administration is telling you. Is something the Philippines cannot afford.
In fact. You’ll be hit in two areas that have been practically supporting your already laughable economy. The first to go, will be your precious OFW remittances. Because no one in their right mind will send a single peso to an unstable country. And the other will be the BPO industry. That’s right folks! You bright, shining star will fade overnight. And you’ll be stuck with another 1 million unemployed Filipinos.

Scenario #2 – The Status Quo: This is the most common set of stunts, and will follow the same pathetic pattern as 2013, 2010, and so on. The Liberal Party and current President BS Aquino will get what they want, as Mar Roxas will win. Their Senatorial bets will get the familiar faces and a few new ones. And life will go on as before. And just how will this happen, you ask? It’s pretty easy actually.
In spite of all the clamour, bitching, whining and crying. At the last minute, the public will revert back to their old ways. And simply punch the card of someone they recognize. Like the guy with the cute smile. Or some inexperienced athlete. Or even some cheese dick talk show host. All in all, the nation will have to endure an additional 6 more years of the same old doom & gloom. If it actually survives this time around.

Scenario #3 – The Roxas Problemo: This will be the one the current power holders will not expect. If Roxas gets the win. This could lead to social upheaval. Unlike the overrated Edsa1 movement of 1986, where only Manila had people in the streets. This could turn into a legitimate, nationwide revolution of sorts. And sadly, it may not be a peaceful one this time around. And the Liberal Party, in its infinite wisdom. just might recommend the President declare Martial Law, using the upheaval to justify its being implemented.
But in doing so, this will produce negative repercussions. For one, it will create a picture of deception regarding the past 30 years. And make the people question their own, recent past. Especially since it’s been the Aquino’s and the Liberal Party constantly reminding the people of how horrible the Martial Law years were under President Marcos. Not to mention the overplayed “Never Again” being exposed as another falsehood.

Scenario #4 – The Dream of Poe: If Grace Poe wins, there will be dancing in the streets. But this, like her Presidency, may be short lived. The first 6 months or so, will appear to be for the betterment of things. But once the ball’s rolling, we should see a steady return to the status quo, as the expected ruling Liberal Party will say otherwise. With Ms Poe being as inexperienced as Cory Aquino. Manipulating her strings shouldn’t be problem at all.
The more serious downside to having Poe in the driver’s seat, will be the appearance of her ignoring many of her so-called campaign promises. This in part, will be due to the numerous puppet masters, all vying for control of her wire set. While once again, ignoring the people’s needs. But not to worry. Her large fan base will be happy with her presence. And much the same way they reacted with BS Aquino taking hold of the reins back in 2010. They’ll overlook the endless array of mistakes she’s bound to make.

Scenario #5 – Duterte In Control: A Duterte win appears to be what the majority desires. A solid change for the future of the Philippines and her people. If he can get things started smoothly. And without a hitch. We should begin feeling a positive upswing by the end of his 1st full year in office.

Scenario #6 – Duterte Gets Tough: Duterte wins. But has a few hurdles to get over. The first real barrier in his way, will be the shift away from the current Unitary system. And setting up the Federalized Parliament. With the exception of a few, he should expect to face a ton of bitching and whining from the old guard who refuse to step down. This could lead to a possible coup de tat from the inside. But without the much needed military support. Would more than likely drop dead in the planning stages.
In short. Duterte, like Marcos. Will have to padlock the building, and surprise the hell out of them come Monday morning. This childishness shouldn’t last too long though. As Duterte has a tough as nails reputation. And won’t stand for it. And once he gets past this, he should be able to get back on track. Some have been making claims that he would declare Martial Law. But given his insight into not only the past. As well as the future. I firmly believe he will do his best to avoid it, unless absolutely necessary.

I am sure there could be a number of other scenarios. But for me, these are based on the 3 top candidates who seem to be dominating the polls. Of course, the Vice Presidential winner would seriously impact my list. Especially if Senator Marcos gets the win. That alone will change the rules in a major way. So much so, it may completely cancel out everything, and pave the way for scenario #5 to be into action. But most important of all? The ball really is in your court folks.
voting_boothSo when between now and May 9th. Please do take the time to consider who your candidates are, and weigh every option before you step into that booth to make your mark. Forget all that bullshit about who’s got the cutest smile. Or he’s a great boxer. Do a little extra homework to see if they have a real agenda for your future, and not theirs. Remember, having a popular family name doesn’t make one a great leader. Just look where another Aquino got you?
So cross your fingers folks. And pray to whatever God(s) you can think of, that one of the first 3 doesn’t happen. Otherwise, you’re all going to be in deep shit. And this time around. It could take decades to dig yourselves out of this shit box.

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