Win-win solution needed for China crisis

DEMAND AND SUPPLY

Win-win solution needed for China crisis

By Boo Chanco

Our crisis with China probably escalated because there are so many lawyers and unemployed know-it-alls in this country with nothing better to do. How else can one explain an abundance of hot headed statements and theatrics on the territorial dispute with China?

Actually, even P-Noy was initially unnecessarily belligerent on the issue, something that may have contributed to a worsening of the war of words between Beijing and Manila. Worse, the DFA has been merely reacting to headlines and doesn’t seem to have an overall strategy for dealing with the issue.

We have nothing to gain, and plenty to lose if the present state of crisis prevails in the next few months. It didn’t help that Grace Lee, supposedly a good friend of P-Noy, tweeted her intention to go on a boycott of China made products, assuming this is feasible.

Economically, we have more to lose than China as we are now finding out. The thing about the bananas and the papayas happened a month or so before the crisis really heated up. But it shows how much economic leverage China has, considering that our exports are concentrated in just a few agricultural products and components for electronic products.

We also have some 50,000 OFWs in China working as English teachers, musicians, household service employees, hotel and restaurant managers, engineers, teachers, manufacturing and property investors, media, employees in multinational corporations, and architects among others. We have about 150,000 OFWs in Hong Kong and Macau.

Back here at home there must be a hundred thousand people supported by our banana and other agricultural exports to China. And in our tourism sector, normally fully booked charter flights of Zest Air, AirPhil Express and Cebu Pacific from China have been cancelled for the next months. Hotel rooms in Boracay, Bohol and Cebu are suddenly without occupants.

What can we threaten China with, with all due respect to Grace Lee and yes, you too Joey Salceda? Very few people can resist the bargains at the 168 mall in Divisoria. And what modern day consumer product doesn’t have a Chinese-made component? Can we survive without our cell phones and computers?

I agree that we must strongly assert our position but in the proper venues like the United Nations and Asean. That publicity seeking venture of a former Marine mutineer to go to the shoal in a flotilla of fishing boats with media reporters and TV cameramen on board can only bring us closer to a more serious escalation of the conflict we don’t really need. It is good they listened to P-Noy’s request to stop the floating extravaganza.

Of course China must understand we are a democratic country and our citizens have a right to express themselves. China often mistakes rallies and media comments as expressing official positions, the way it is with them.

It also doesn’t help that we don’t have an ambassador in Beijing now and two special envoys with limited mandates will not do. If someone experienced in Beijing’s ways like Chito Sta Romana was there, he would have been able to properly guide Malacanang by giving P-Noy a good reading of the Chinese perspective and sensitivities.

It is also unfortunate that the Chinese ambassador here is new. If the former Ambassador to Manila, Liu Jianchao and his political officer, Ethan Y. Sun were still here, they would be in a better and more credible position to explain the nuances of our reactions to Beijing. In my one-on-one conversations with Ambassador Liu, I am convinced he understands our democracy and our society better than a fresh appointee whose last foreign assignment was a country in Scandinavia.

What we need to do urgently is to cool down everything so that we can go back to normal relations. As I suggested in a previous column, it should be possible to put these territorial claims on the back burner for the moment and normalize relations because there is no way we can get a solution quickly.

We have done something like that in the past. Remember that we almost went to war with Malaysia over the Sabah claim and we even broke diplomatic ties. When I first visited Malaysia in 1969 as part of a UP Student Council delegation, we didn’t have an ambassador or an embassy in Kuala Lumpur. Yet, among the Asean countries we visited, we got the warmest welcome from our counterparts in the University of Malaya.

Eventually, our government found it in the national interest to put our Sabah claim on hold and resume normal diplomatic relations with Malaysia. I am not sure if we have totally renounced our Sabah claim but it is certainly not the most important thing that defines our relationship with Malaysia.

Why can’t we adopt the same strategy with China? We have more reasons to do so with China, given its current world economic superpower status today.

I think it is possible to talk to China and agree to put all territorial claims aside without abandoning them for future resolution through bilateral talks or through the auspices of the United Nations. China, despite its tough position in recent weeks, also has an international reputation to protect and would probably be just as anxious for a peaceful outcome.

I don’t know what the motives of former President Arroyo were when she agreed to a joint exploitation of natural resources in the disputed areas. But critical as I have been of her tenure, I have to concede that her joint exploitation approach may be the most practical at this point. In the case of petroleum resources, we would need a foreign partner anyway who can provide the financial and technical resources we don’t have. Why can’t it be a Chinese partner?

Manny Pangilinan must be encouraged to continue negotiating with CNOOC on the development of Recto Bank. The deal will probably call for both countries to put sovereignty claims aside and just concentrate on the economic exploitation of whatever resource there might be on 50/50 basis after development expenses are accounted for. A deal similar to our service contracts with Shell and Chevron in Malampaya could be structured for CNOOC.

Forget Panatag (Scarborough) Shoal. My sources who are familiar with our country’s geology with regards to petroleum deposits tell me there is nothing there. The most prospective is Recto Bank but it is more likely to be natural gas. The development of this resource is rather expensive, as we found out in Malampaya. And China may turn out to be a major and most convenient market for it. It makes sense to talk to them as MVP is doing.

But my sources tell me MVP didn’t get to the real decision makers in CNOOC in his last visit. That’s expected given the political shadow that blankets the area. It could well happen that no other foreign company will want to invest in a contested area so that CNOOC may really be the party to partner with. Cooling the current tension will provide the proper atmosphere for a successful negotiation.

There are, thus, very good reasons to maintain good relations with China. Given our economic situation, pragmatism in our relations with all nations ought to be a key consideration. We should assert our rights but do so in a way that does not aggravate an already difficult situation.

P-Noy and Defense Secretary Voltaire Gazmin made the mistake of using the American card in relation to our territorial dispute with China. Depending on the Americans is an “iffy”, even stupid assumption to make in the context of today’s geopolitical environment, no matter what our Mutual Defense Treaty says or assurances from Hilary Clinton.

The Chinese are very pragmatic people and we should be too. How else could they have pulled off remaining communist but raking it in under capitalist rules better than the capitalist West?

We have to approach this problem wisely and think through a good strategy for a win-win solution. In the end, a million wise ass lawyers saying we have legal rights to the territories mean nothing in the face of geopolitical realities.

Let us weigh the risks of options we take. Let us not trash our economic interests for mere symbolic assertions of our rights that are still to be confirmed by a proper UN agency. Pragmatism will lead to a win-win solution both us and China can embrace.

Liar

Lawyer Sonny Pulgar sent this one.

“That wife of mine is a liar,” said the angry husband to a sympathetic pal seated next to him in the bar.

“How do you know?” the friend asked.

“She didn’t come home last night, and when I asked her where she’d been, she said she’d spent the night with her sister, Shirley.”

“So?” the friend replied.

“So, she’s a liar. I spent the night with her sister Shirley!”

Boo Chanco’s e-mail address is bchanco@gmail.com. Follow him on Twitter @boochanco