War, not more fun for the Philippines

Editorial

President Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino 3rd is playing a dangerous game of brinkmanship with China in the West Philippine Sea. The President’s approach toward asserting the Philippine claims is antagonizing China and stoking xenophobic feelings among some Filipinos. Only the blind and thosåe who do not understand China fail to see that it is now poised for war. And an assessment of China to the contrary would be a miscalculation that carries serious economic and political consequences for the Philippines.

As we have mentioned repeatedly, the Philippines must move quickly to deescalate tensions, which have risen recently because of confrontations at Scarborough Shoal. At the same time, the President should review his policies and strategies on the disputed territories. He and his advisers should ask a number of serious questions—not the least of which is, “Is the Philippines prepared to go to war over its claims?” Even if we are, we believe that the losses far outweigh the possible gains.

The prospect of war over the disputed territorial claims is not as remote as some might think. According to at least one China observer, some Chinese believe that the Philippines actually wants war, mainly to test the commitment of the United States to defend it. The Philippines and the US have a mutual defense treaty, which Manila believes offers protection against China. But recently, the US announced that it would not take sides in the territorial disputes, and that its national interest was focused on the freedom of navigation in the region.

Meanwhile, though, Washington has doubled its military aid to the Philippines to $30 million this year. Also, the US has committed to provide another used warship to the Philippine Navy, and there have been reports about acquiring fighter jets to augment the Philippine Air Force. Unless tensions ease, it would be reasonable to predict that more US troops would visit or would be deployed to the Philippines. Naturally, greater US presence in the Philippines has domestic political implications. We hope that the President has considered that in depth.

Also recently, China has complained that the Philippines was aggravating the tensions instead of easing them. In an apparent warning shot, China has suspended tours to the Philippines and has tightened procedures for fruits imported from this country. President Aquino and his advisers should recognize the gravity of these gestures.

Concerns about US, not Philippines

China is reacting so seriously, because it believes that the Philippines is being the bully. Many Filipinos may be perplexed about that, given that China is a superpower and an economic giant with a population of more than a billion. The Philippines, with its puny Navy, is not a threatening force per se. From China’s perspective, the bigger threat is its rival superpower the US, which is supposedly backing the Philippines.

For now, the United States remains as the dominant force in this region. But the rise of China poses a serious challenge. It would be a mistake for the Philippines to get caught between the two competing superpowers. The US statement about its impartiality in territorial disputes may be perceived by the Chinese as a green light to take a more aggressive posture against the Philippines. It might not be unrealistic to consider that future confrontations between the Chinese and Filipinos could trigger, at the least, a naval skirmish.

The Philippines should pursue an independent foreign policy and avoid taking sides between the superpowers competing for dominance in the region. The United States may be a friend and ally, but its interests are not always aligned with those of the Philippines. And like the US, China is a friend, one that offers huge opportunities in trade, tourism and investments. The Philippines also has historical ties with China that was highlighted by the late President Corazon “Cory” Aquino when she traced her family roots on the mainland. It seems ironic that her son would be the President who might lead us to war against China.

Urgent: Send special envoy to Beijing

On a positive note, it is not too late to repair relations with China. We urge President Aquino to immediately dispatch a special envoy to Beijing, with a mission to convey the goodwill and peaceful intentions of the Filipino people. Perhaps Vice President Jejomar Binay or a trusted Cabinet official, like Sec. Manuel “Mar” Roxas 2nd of the Department of Transportation and Communication (DOTC), would be good choices. After all, the President had earlier sent the Vice President to China to seek clemency for Filipinos on death row. And President Aquino had sent Sec. Roxas to Taipei to repair relations with Taiwan, which was upset over the deportation of its nationals to the mainland. Such gestures are not new and are timely given the dangerous situation.

Next, President Aquino should hasten the appointment of a Philippine ambassador to China, a post that has been vacant for about two years. Not having an ambassador in Beijing sends the wrong message – that friendship with China is not a priority. The Philippines needs someone in Beijing with diplomatic skills and with an intimate understanding of China, preferably also someone who speaks Chinese. And when the President finally gets around to appointing someone, we hope that Congress prioritizes his or her confirmation.

Finally, we urge the President to hire new advisers on China. Apparently, he needs help crafting plans to pursue Philippine objectives without provoking other countries into a fight. Heaven help us, if it comes to that.