Aquino’s BangsaMoro Framework Agreement was launched In October 2012. While Aquino and the rest of the yellow Pinoys were euphoric, I pointed out that it was premature to proclaim a resolution of the Moro issues.
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The Philippines National Oil Company (PNOC) began exploring for oil and natural gas in the Liguasan Marsh area in 1994 under Geophysical Survey and Exploration Contract (GSEC) 73, which covered all of Maguindanao, North Cotabato, South Cotabato, Sultan Kudurat, Sarangani, Davao, and Bukidnon provinces of Mindanao.Malaysia’s national oil company, Petronas, partnered with the PNOC for the exploration of the marshland.“By the late 1990’s, they had located natural gas and/or oil in five sites, including Datu Piang (Dulawan) and Sultan Sa Barongis in Maguindanao and Lambayong in Sultan Kudurat.According to the PNOC, the estimated natural gas deposits in Sultan Sa Barongis alone would be enough to fuel a 60-megawatt (MW) combined cycle power plant for 20 years.“The PNOC had hoped to use this gas to support the power requirements of Mindanao as well as for industrial applications. However, the PNOC and Petronas suspended operations in the Liguasan Marsh area due to threats from the MILF and extortion by local mayors and political warlords,” it added.***If the website of the Royal Hashemite Sultanate of Sulu website is correct, the Philippine government stands to earn 60% of all oil royalties from the find of oil companies***When the fanfare, press releases, feel good ceremonies are over – it will still boil down to jobs – and there will not be any. When the intoxication and euphoria of these meaningless actions are over, comes the reality check – where are the jobs? Hell breaks loose all over again.
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The Bangsamoro Framework Agreement
The deal (Bangsamoro Framework Agreement) is between the government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, by far the largest of the armed Muslim groups on Mindanao. The MILF includes about 20,000 members in an area with a population of more than 4 million people, most of them Muslim.
The breakthrough in the talks came when negotiators for the MILF stopped insisting that all their members would remain armed until the agreement really takes effect. “We now have a solution to our problem,” MILF Vice Chairman Ghazili Jaafar told local journalists yesterday. The agreement “has been accepted by a majority of the Bangsamoros,” he said.
Uncertainty crept into his comments, though, when he added, “Let’s hope that finally a final agreement will be signed.”
Negotiators are to sign the agreement Oct. 15 in Malacañang Palace under the eyes of Aquino and Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak, but that’s just the first step in a process that has to include a plebiscite among voters in the area covered by the agreement before it takes effect three or four years from now.
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Thus far, it can be concluded that:
1. Petronas/Malaysia and PNOC/PHL government have worked together to explore/develop natural/gas oil in Liguasan Marsh (MILF territory). Operations stopped in the late 1990s after the MILF threatened the operations.
2. Bangsamoro Peace Framework agreement between MILF and Philippine government signed in Kuala Lumpur. Philippine President Benigno Aquino III, who engineered the deal hammered out in secret talks in the Malaysian capital of Kuala Lumpur, described it in glowing terms in a television address broadcast nationwide from Malacañang, the presidential palace (Oct 2012).
3. Philippine government stands to earn 60% of all natural gas/oil extracted from Liguasan Marsh. The remanining 40% will be divided between the MILF/Bangsamoro and most likely – Petronas.
The Dog Nearly Ate Kiram’s Letter
“On the issue of the missing letter written by Raja Muda Agbimuddin Kiram to the President days before the President took his oath in June 2010, that letter has been found with the DFA. The Secretary is taking full responsibility for the oversight,” said the DFA.
(Okay, I thought they would say – the dog ate your letter.)
In that same story carried by the Inquirer – the Kirams had said their group decided to pursue the Philippines’ claim to Sabah last month as they felt left out of the peace negotiations between the government and the MILF. The two sides had achieved strides last year, with the signing of a framework agreement for the establishment of a Bangsamoro juridical entity.
Beware the Lord of the Manor’s Wrath
The recognized owners of Sabah want to renegotiate the measly amount they have been receiving from Malaysia. It appears that Malaysia is not willing to negotiate with the Sultanate. So here comes the Sultanate asking the Aquino administration government to represent it in filing a claim leading to a renegotiation of the Sabah rent.
Since the Philippine government was unresponsive, the landlord (the Sultanate of Sulu) took the matter in his hands of making a motion of booting out the tenant for unwillingness to increase payment rentals.
The Malaysian government on its part is sticking to the letter of the contract (quite generous and onerous I might say) – - the rent amount being fixed for perpetuity (no anticipation of inflation due to decoupling from the gold standard) and without any exit clause whatsoever.
Then Senator Amina Rasul was quoted:
“In 1996, Princess Denchurai Kiram, daughter of Princess Tarhata Kiram and administrator of her estate, wrote then Prime Minister Mahathir to raise the rental to $1,000,000. She also stated that she and the other heirs were willing to renounce the claim if Kuala Lumpur will provide a fair settlement. The letter was ignored by Mr. Mahathir.“In June 2010, the Sulu provincial board passed a resolution supporting the demand of the heirs to increase the yearly payment to at least $500 million.“Weeks earlier, Nur Misuari (chairman of the Moro National Liberation Front) issued a statement calling the attention of Malaysia to settle the Sabah issue. Misuari’s first wife, the late Desdemona Tan, and present wife Ruayda, are heirs to Sabah since they are descendants of Dayang-Dayang (Queen) Hadja Piandao, who was acknowledged to have 3/8 share of Sabah.“In January 2001, Sultan Esmail Kiram II, the brother of Jamalul III, also wrote Mr. Mahathir, this time through President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo.… (The) demand was for $855 million.”
Yup it’s one messed up deal. And it boils down to one thing, it’s all about the money.
Settling Jurisdiction
There are calls that the Philippines submit the matter to the ICJ for final determination.
The Sipadan ruling in Indonesia vs Malaysia where the Philippines made a motion to intervene has laid down the principles on how the ICJ will conduct itself on the issue of sovereignty and the Sultan’s historic title – the people of Sabah are not subjects of the Sultan, while the Sultan may own the territory the people live in – by virtue of the historic lease, the rules that will be observed in that property will be the rules of whoever has sovereignty as determined by the organic act of self-determination.
Based on the decolonization policy observed under international law, the act of self-determination has transferred sovereignty of Sabah from the hands of the Sultanate to the state of Sabah and subsequently, Malaysia.
Not About Sovereignty
The Philippine government stands to earn 60% of the natural gas and oil it can find in Sabah if it can exercise sovereignty over Sabah. But, the issue has never been about sovereignty to begin with.
The Sipadan ruling is clear that the Philippines will not be able to assert sovereignty over Sabah. If the Philippine government were to file a claim of sovereignty with the ICJ today, it will go through the motions as a political measure to appease the Sultan.
The Sultanate Wants “In”
The issue is about money – rent money. With so much money now that will be made between the MILF, the PNOC and Petronas (and, previously the MNLF, too)- the steady whiff of greenbucks will keep on fanning the smoldering embers of Sabah in the house of Kiram.
Kiram’s calculus is that it was only after the real threat of violence by MNLF and MILF that the GRP acted on their demands. Kiram is simply pushing the right buttons that will get the GRP to get to work on his demands – no more no less.
The signing of the Bangsamoro Framework Agreement provided verification of Kiram’s calculus.
Finding the Way Forward
As lives are shed, the first imperative is to get all sides to stop the shooting and return to the negotiating table.
The second imperative is to bring a final determination of this issue. This can be achieved in a couple of ways:
1. Increase the rent and revise the contract. (Malaysia has been stonewalling along this end)
2. Bring the issue to the International Court of Justice. (Based on the Sipadan ruling – the Sultanate will not be happy with how this will turn out.)
3. Pay reparations to the Sultanate of Sulu. (As was done in the Maori reparations and the Waitangi tribunal – I’ll be the PHL government will be salivating to have a cut in reparation payments to Kiram).
The cost of doing nothing will be more violence and lives lost.
In assigning accountability the buck stops with the Aquino government for grossly mishandling the matter – specifically, not paying attention to the dynamics of the conflict and grossly underestimating the political will of the Sulu Sultanate to reassert its defunct claim over Sabah.
Lastly, in coming to terms with the Aquino regime’s inaction on Kiram’s request that led to bloody repercussions downstream – it’s all about the money. Perhaps Kiram’s money wasn’t talking loud enough to the yellow cabinet.
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