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Monday, April 16, 2012

Economic Outlook of Aquino’s Economic Managers and Global Business Does Not Match

I came across a headline that read CJ Corona’s ITR and SALN does not match. Why oh why am I not surprised. You can pretty much say the same thing about everyone in that impeachment court – their ITRs and SALNs do not match. I will bet my last centavo that the SALN and ITR of all the players in the impeachment court – do not match. Heck, I will bet further that President Aquino’s SALN and ITR do not match.

And if that’s not enough, Aquino does not even want to have his Pork Barrel disbursements audited – whether as President or Congressman. You see – if these barrel disbursements were audited – not one of these people who call themselves “honorable” – chances are they have all betrayed the public trust – ALL OF THEM.

Unfortunately, we can’t recall nor impeach Senators and Congressmen. To me, that’s another future agenda for charter reform. Citizens should have the recourse to recall senators and congressmen, particularly when these lawmakers just do nothing but come up with useless probes.

However, I digress – that’s not the topic of this post. While, everyone’s gone gaga on the #CJOnTrial #CJImpeach meme, I prefer to keep watch on the things that matter, to me anyways – it’s the economy, dumbass!

So, while the prosecution was stating that CJ Corona’s ITR and SALN did not match, am saying that the economic outlook of NEDA and Global Business does not match.

Here’s the rundown folks.

Deloitte.com

http://www.deloitte.com/view/en_GX/global/insights/deloitte-research/economic-research/52d1d8d3d40f4310VgnVCM1000001a56f00aRCRD.htm

The Philippines: Tumbling exports and a slowdown in remittances from overseas workers will likely impact economic growth in The Philippines. The country may come to rely more on domestic consumption and investments. Given the downside risks from global economic developments, the Philippine economy is expected to expand at a modest pace of around 3.5 percent this year.

Asian Development Bank

THE Asian Development Bank on Tuesday cut its growth forecast for the Philippines’ gross domestic product to 3.7 percent this year from 4.7 percent earlier as a result of the global economic downturn.

The bank also lowered its growth outlook for the Philippines to 4.8 percent in 2012 from its previous estimate of 5.1 percent, but that could fall further to 4.2 percent if Europe’s debt woes worsened and the United States’ economic problems deepened, it said.

World Bank

By Ted P. Torres (The Philippine Star) Updated January 19, 2012 12:00 AM Comments (0)

MANILA, Philippines – The World Bank has trimmed its growth outlook for the Philippines this year to 4.2 percent, from an earlier forecast of 4.8 percent, as it warned of the impact of a looming global recession similar to the Lehman-induced crisis in 2009.

Hong Kong and Shanghai Bank

The Hong Kong and Shanghai Banking Corporation ( HSBC) said that the Philippine economy would grow by just 3.6 percent in 2011 and this year, down from the 4.3 percent and 4.8 percent respectively it announced in October.

The HSBC said Philippine growth will be the second slowest in ASEAN that includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam

Philippine Government Figures

(philstar.com) Updated January 07, 2012 11:00 PM Comments (1)

MANILA, Philippines (Xinhua) – Economic managers of the Philippine government have said that the country’s gross domestic product ( GDP) would grow by 5 to 6 percent this year despite uncertainties in the global economy.

According to Economic Planning Secretary Cayetano Paderanga, this slightly higher GDP growth could be achieved through increased government spending and the full implementation of the public-private partnership (PPP) program of the Aquino administration.

The government’s full-year growth forecast for 2011 is from 4.5 to 5.5 percent although multilateral lending institutions have pegged the country’s growth last year from just 3.7-3.8 percent.

*****
Early last year, the government said that they expected the country to grow by 7-8 percent.

So here lies the Filipinos and the Philippines. While the rest of the world says brace for impact – the Filipinos and the Philippines says “it’s all good”. Of course we know how that ends – with the Philippines and Filipinos putting its foot in its mouth over and over.

Against the backdrop of global economic risks and the inherent flaws of a mercantilist Philippine welfare state – the happy talk of Aquino’s economic managers do not match the global reality.

Worse, vested interests are already banking to capture contracts that involve more waste of taxpayer’s money – and the continuing slavery of Filipinos overseas in order to generate revenues for Filipino big business.

The Philippine Business paradigm: Corporatocracy/Crony Capitalism

The Philippine economy can grow at a faster pace of 5-6 percent this year on the back of higher government spending and robust overseas Filipino remittances that help drive up consumption, according to First Metro Investment Corp.

“”We anticipate more active greenfield sectors, particularly in toll roads and power. “

SM:

At the 2012 Business and Economic Prospects forum, Corazon P. Guidote, vice president for investor relations of SM Investment Corporation, placed her growth forecast at 5-5.5% in 2012, with private sector support complimenting government’s plans to ramp up public spending.

“It’s really consumer spending that is driving the economy upward,” Ms. Guidote said.

However, University of the Philippines economist Benjamin E. Diokno, Jr. tempered Ms. Guidote’s positive outlook, as he maintained his earlier forecast of 4-5% growth this year amid weak exports and insufficient public spending.

PHL has Highest Wages? So what?

It was recently trumpeted that ‘Phl wages among highest in SE Asia.

Well you better have the highest wages in the region, given that you face the highest power rates and phone rates in the region too.

Highest Power Rates

Philippine power rates now the highest in Asia

THE Philippines last year charged the highest electricity rate to residential customers in Asia at 18 US cents a kilowatt-hour, according to a study conducted by the Australia-based International Energy Consultant

Highest Phone Rates

Call and text rates in the Philippines remain one of the highest in the Southeast Asian region

“Fitch believes that price competition will continue to affect average revenue per user in 2012, despite the creation of a duopoly following PLDT’s [Philippine Long Distance Telephone Co.] acquisition of the third-largest telco, Digital Telecommunications Philippines,” the firm said in the report.

PLDT’s acquisition of Digitel, operator of mobile brand Sun Cellular, solidified the group’s dominance in the telecom market, increasing its market share from just 50 percent to around 70 percent.

Nitin Soni, associate director of Fitch’s Asia-Pacific Telecommunications team, said operating “ebitdar,” or earnings before income tax, depreciation, amortization and rent, margins have been “unsustainably high” for Philippine telecom companies. Call and text rates in the Philippines remain one of the highest in the Southeast Asian region.

Thus, far the talk of daang matuwid, and walang mahirap kung walang corrupt does not match the reality.

A poverty rate of 45% does not make the Philippines prosperous, the pabaon probes and all the probes have not reduced corruption – and have in fact increased it as crooks pay top dollar to be not included in the probe.

It’s not fun to be a tourist and be hostaged by a rogue cop.

It’s not fun to look for jobs overseas because investors from overseas are not allowed to own more than 40% equity of Philippine businesses.

Impeaching Corona does not make hunger go away, nor will it reduce poverty, generate jobs, or attract investments, or reduce corruption.

It is an action that does not match the needs of the Philippines. It’s not surprising considering that Filipinos aspirations of an enlightened leader does not match the actions of their hands that vote on the ballot.

About the Author

BongV

has written 364 stories on this site.

BongV is the webmaster of Antipinoy.com.

Comments on “Economic Outlook of Aquino’s Economic Managers and Global Business Does Not Match”

  • Hyden Toro wrote on 26 January, 2012, 14:19

    What did Noynoy Aquino and his economic YellowTards use in their economic forecast? Statistics or mumbo jumbo tools. Maybe they have a Crystal Ball…or have gazed to the sun, to get a good readings…The ancient Greeks used the “Oracle of Delphi”, to forecast coming events…If they plant crops; go to war; or hang their leaders…
    Forecasts are nothing, because my Filipino’s monthly pays are not enough to take care of their basic needs…this should be addressed by Noynoy Aquino…not blaming others for his incompetence. Or persecuting his political enemies; or protecting his Hacienda Luisita; or Usurping Power of the Judiciary, by impeaching Supreme Court Justice Corona…

    [Reply]

  • Ozneh wrote on 26 January, 2012, 19:26

    Dapat talgang buksan ulit yung Bataan Nuclear Power Plant. High phone rates? Mag-unli.. Nung lumago ang economy natin nung 2010 ng 7.4% kaninong forecast ba ang pinakamalapit diyan?

    [Reply]

    Hyden Toro Reply:

    Bataan Nuclear Plant design is obsolete…it will require billions of U.S., dollars to upgrade the design; makes it operational…do we have enough Technical men to run the Nuclear Plant? They became OFWs already…Nuclear Engineers are paid much in the U.S.; annual pay is around U.S. $180,000, plus perks and benefits Can the Philippines afford these men? Nuclear Technicians are paid around U.S. $90,000 per year, with benefits…
    Plus the cost of the Plant’s maintenance/spare parts, and the cost of the Fuel Rods…Even the disposing of the Fuel Rods will be a problem, with high cost of disposal…If you allow them to be buried in your backyard…it will be your problem…Radiation illness – cancers for you, and mutations for your children…

    [Reply]

    Hyden Toro Reply:

    Engineers and Technicians in a Nuclear Facility, must have years and years of experience to run a Nuclear Plant…you cannot just send people to be trained for a few months, in a crass course…then make them run a Nuclear Plant facility…this will result in a Meltdown of the Fuel Rods…same tragedy as it happened in Japan recently…it’s very hard to stop a nuclear meltdown…
    The Energy problem is a problem of Noynoy Aquino. Kalampagin ninyo siya, to solve this problem…he is diverting our attentions in impeachments…

    [Reply]

    Jay Reply:

    I agree. The design is ancient in comparison to the newer ones implemented. There is a higher chance for meltdown and a lower chance to preparing the people for a nuclear crisis if we just ‘opened’ it back up.

    [Reply]

    BongV

    BongV Reply:

    ok sana kung yung mga bobo lang tatamaan ng radiation….
    it will be a better world -

    [Reply]

    RETURNOFTHECOMEBACK Reply:

    Kapag nag-mutate ang mga bobo, magiging mga henyo sila. Hindi ka ba nagbabasa ng mga American comics?!

    BongV

    BongV Reply:

    Yeah naging henyo ang fukushima victims. Nagbasa ng tiktik magazine

    AlvinEternal

    Daido Katsumi Reply:

    RETURNOFTHECOMBACK:

    Hit or miss, troll. Hit or miss.

    Ozneh Reply:

    Bago mag naman patakbuhin ang nuclear power plant may safety standards yan na sinusunod.. At yung lumang nuclear power plant sa bataan irerehabilitate muna yan bago gamitin. Regarding safety issues na lagi nyong inaassociate sa earthquake, yung nuclear meltdown ba sa Japan dahil ba sa ground shaking o Tsunami? Japan’s nuclear reactor was built way back in the 1980s and it was able to withstand a 9.0 magnitude earthquake. Are we expecting the same kind of earthquake in Bataan? How about a Tsunami?

    Not enough people bec. they are already abroad? Tanong nyo yan kay BongV na jinujustify lagi ang mga nag-aabroad at kay Benigno na kinicriticize ang speech ni Winnie Monsod sa U.P. students tungkol sa pag iistay dito sa Pilipinas. Paniwala kasi nila yung pinapadala nila ditong pera malaking tulong na yun kesa sa wealth creation na pwedeng maidulot pag nag stay ang mga talented people sa bansa. Oh diba aminado naman pala kayo na may kakulangan tayo ng professionals? Pano mag iinvest saten kung lahat ng mga professionals natin nasa iba’t ibang bansa na at wala sa Pilipinas? Sino ihihire nila dito? Mga tira-tira?

    Ang hirap nga magpatakbo ng nuclear power plant ahhh. Earlier than 1950s pa ata yan.. Magkaiba tayo ng sitwasyon sa Japan. It’s like comparing apples to oranges.

    [Reply]

    Ozneh Reply:

    PHL has Highest Wages? So what?

    -Tapos kinompare sa phone rates at power rates. Hindi ba dapat sa cost of living siya kinocompare? Kasi kasali na dun lahat? Bias kung sa pool of samples pipili ka lang ng extreme (outlier). Hindi nun narereflect yung overall living condition dito…

    [Reply]

    BongV

    BongV Reply:

    cost of living is relative

    if you are an expat with substantial FOREX – cost of living is cheap –
    the downside – you cannot own land and businesses

    if you are pinoy -without forex – even if you have the highest minimum wage
    it still does not matter because the minimum wage is not a living wage – the costs of commodities are eaten by inflation, basic goods are kept high due to import restrictions, services (utilities) are kept high due to lack of competition

    - thus despite the “highest minimum wage” – hunger is increasing, poverty remains at 43%, FDI remains low

    BongV

    BongV Reply:

    kung yung standards mo 1950 pa…
    ala kang pag-asa

    [Reply]

    Ozneh Reply:

    cost of living is relative

    if you are an expat with substantial FOREX – cost of living is cheap –

    -Yes. Even cheaper than other Southeast Asian nations. Ibig sabihin lang ng Forex na yan para magkaron tayo ng uniform basis ng measurement. Halimbawa in terms of dollar, tapos based on that irarank tayo kung gano kamahal ang presyo ng bilihin sa bawat bansa. At isa tayo sa pinakamurang bansa… Yun nga lang, mababa di ang pasweldo.. Pero kung icocompare mo ulit sa Southeast Asia, one of the highest wagest tapos cheapest prices pa..

    Ang hirap nga magpatakbo ng nuclear power plant ahhh. Earlier than 1950s pa ata yan..

    -Sarcasm lang yan.. Ibig kong sabhin nag upgrade na ang technology since 1950s.. Pag nireopen ang BNPP siyempre using current standards.. At ano mahirap dun kung 1950s pa lang meron na tayo niyan.. Mas madali na nga ngayon because of the technology.

    [Reply]

    Jay Reply:

    Japan’s nuclear reactor was built way back in the 1980s and it was able to withstand a 9.0 magnitude earthquake. Are we expecting the same kind of earthquake in Bataan?

    That is beside the point there. The point is how reliable old tech can be especially when it comes to nuclear power. Japan has long been playing with that and has upped their measures. If the Pinoys can’t even take care of their own catasrophe awareness and preparation, you think they can deal with a meltdown?

    Paniwala kasi nila yung pinapadala nila ditong pera malaking tulong na yun kesa sa wealth creation na pwedeng maidulot pag nag stay ang mga talented people sa bansa.

    The fact the currency coming in is stronger than the Filipino peso still means more. The fact they actually GOT JOBS overseas and not in the country is another huge knock. So until your fearless leader and whoever else after him fixes this endless loop, it is all pretty real. Whatever this ‘wealth’ generation you na pahiwatig mo ay hindi nag trickle pa baba.

    Oh diba aminado naman pala kayo na may kakulangan tayo ng professionals? Pano mag iinvest saten kung lahat ng mga professionals natin nasa iba’t ibang bansa na at wala sa Pilipinas? Sino ihihire nila dito?
    At the current rate of the 60/40, no business is coming to come in PERIOD. They would rather go to the other neighboring asian countries before thinking about setting shop in the Philippines. And blame that on the Philippine government for not creating more jobs IN the country and continuing to outsource since they cannot compete with the current system they have.

    Ang hirap nga magpatakbo ng nuclear power plant ahhh. Earlier than 1950s pa ata yan.. Magkaiba tayo ng sitwasyon sa Japan. It’s like comparing apples to oranges.

    And you can’t compare an old 1950′s nuclear power plant to jeepney engines the people still use out on the streets since the late 80′s. Just because it looks like we can get a bunch of engineers to see if we can make it run doesn’t mean it is sustainable and safe. Go blame the people after marcos and the people in government now who have no problem paying for power generation with the money they have.

    [Reply]


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