China asserts might

By Elfren Sicangco Cruz

China’s deployment of maritime ships at the Panatag Shoal, only 124 nautical miles off the Zambales coast, to prevent the arrest of Chinese fishermen illegally encroaching in Philippine waters must be viewed as only the latest evidence of its increasing aggressiveness in its behavior towards its Asian neighbors.

Several years ago, Chinese patrol boats were reported to have aimed their guns on Indonesian naval vessels trying to arrest Chinese fishermen. In 2010, Japan lost in a diplomatic struggle with China after arresting the captain of a fishing boat that had deliberately rammed a Japanese Coast Guard vessel sent to chase him out of waters around the disputed Senkaku Islands.

Fifty years ago, in 1962, China fought a war with India over disputed borders in the Himalayas which eventually Beijing won. The relationship between the two countries has remained stable at best. However, only this month, India launched a successful test of a nuclear capable missile that can travel 5,000 kilometers or as far as Beijing and Shanghai.

India now claims it has reached “deterrence parity” with China. However, the Global Times, one of the Chinese Communist Party’s mouthpieces, warned: “India should be clear that China’s nuclear power is stronger and more reliable. For the foreseeable future, India would stand no chance in an overall arms race with China.” Last January the same publication called for punishing the Philippines and Vietnam for “balancing China by siding with the USA.”

It is Vietnam, however, that has had the most violent historical relations with its northern neighbor. This country was actually held by China from 111 B.C. to 939 C.E. It continued to be a vassal state until the 19th century when it was colonized by the French.

After the Americans left Vietnam, 140,000 ethnic Chinese evacuated from Vietnam charging discrimination. In February 1979, Chinese troops attacked four Vietnamese border provinces. Eventually, a truce was declared and the invaders left Vietnam. But relations continue to be confrontational.

Due to Chinese threats, British Petroleum quietly ended joint oil explorations with Hanoi in territorial waters that China has claimed. However, recently, the Russian gas giant Gazprom has announced plans to develop gas fields off the Vietnam coast. Moscow has its own history of confrontations with its southern neighbor. The Russian company is considered unlikely to buckle under pressure from any Chinese threat since Russian continues to have military superiority over China.

The naval standoff between the Philippines and China is not, therefore, an isolated incident. When Japan, Indonesia and the Philippines were forced to act against illegal encroachment of Chinese fishermen, the Chinese government immediately reacted by sending its maritime ships to prevent any arrest.

The standard response by the smaller nations was to appeal to international law and international arbitration. But the Chinese have never agreed to submit themselves to these diplomatic demands. It is difficult to assume that they will now do so in the case of the Panatag standoff.

Unfortunately, except in the case of Vietnam, other Asian nations have regularly capitulated to Chinese military and naval pressure. While China’s smaller neighbors in the region can continue to protest and cite international law, there is increasing suspicion that in the West Philippine Sea or the South China Sea the principle of “might makes right” will become the dominating factor in determining territorial rights. The greater fear now is that China’s “no limits to fishing” policy will embolden more Chinese fishermen to literally invade Philippine territory since they know that Beijing will always protect them.

The unintended consequence of all these confrontations is that other major powers such as the United States and Russia may become more involved in regional conflicts. Japan may also decide that it is time to re-militarize if it needs to protect its sovereign rights against China. In fact, China’s continued aggressiveness may lead to a coalition of aggrieved nations that would include Vietnam, Indonesia, Philippines, Japan and South Korea. This coalition could seek alliances with other powers like India, Russia and even the United States.

The West Philippine Sea is a vital shipping lane between the Middle East and East Asia. The development of oil resources in this area will certainly enhance its strategic value. The question is whether this maritime area will remain an internationally regulated sea or whether China will enunciate a new doctrine that will state that China will have territorial sovereignty over the whole South China Sea.

Filipino China expert Chito Sta. Roman recently wrote: “There is a growing perception that the South China Sea represents a new Persian Gulf.” If this becomes a reality, then we can expect that there will be more Panatag Shoal type of incidents in the future. We should also accept that, while highly improbable, violent confrontations are not impossible.

Dr. Elfren S. Cruz is a professor of Strategic Management at the MBA Program, Ramon V. Del Rosario College of Business, De La Salle University. Please send comments or questions to elfrencruz@gmail.com