Confusion in the shoal

By Johnna Villaviray-Giolagon

The Chinese ships, after a weeks-long staring contest with Philippine authorities, have finally left Panatag Shoal.

Oh, wait, they’re back.

No, no, they’re gone again. This time it’s real.

Oh, they’re still there. Not inside the shoal, mind you, but outside it.

I really don’t know, by the time this is published, where the Chinese ships would exactly be. I don’t know if the Philippines will have ships there or not either.

But, if there’s anything this confusing episode tells us, it’s that conflicting claims over a piece of real estate in the middle of the sea isn’t something you can just sit down and talk over once and expect that everything will blow over afterward.

No matter how effective Ambassador Sonia Braidy might be as a negotiator—she’s our man, uhm, lady, in Beijing—one or two sessions with her counterparts just ain’t gonna work it.

Resolving questions over Panatag Shoal and the Kalayaan Island Group in the West Philippine Sea will take time. It’s no petty 200-meter sprint but a 100K marathon.

What we have over the Kalayaan Island Group in the Spratlys is a comprehensive approach encompassing a coordinated legal, political and diplomatic situation.

Manila wants to do it the morally upright way too.

In taking the moral high ground, Manila makes certain every action undertaken towards underscoring the validity of its claim over KIG and Panatag Shoal is consistent with international law.

Regional cooperation is part of this comprehensive strategy of course.

Some—especially from the domestic audience—might question the effectiveness of the method. After all, look at how successful it was in evicting the Chinese from Panatag Shoal.

Did any of the Philippines’ allies rally against what Manila describes as China’s bully tactics?

No, but that’s not to say that the Philippines expected otherwise.

It is no surprise that the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, an organization that the Philippines co-founded in 1967, has been less than excited over Manila’s seeming outspoken stance.

No matter how good—or even ill-advised—Manila’s arguments are, at the end of the day, acceptability to regional and non-regional partners will depend on the individual country’s national considerations and interests.

China is a benevolent source of overseas development assistance; the size of the Chinese’ economy makes her an important trading partner. Even the simple minded would realize what a big challenge it is to take on a country with a deep pocket.

Despite that, the Philippines has had a small success in drawing attention to the issue and the uncouth approach China has been taking.

So far, nobody from the international community has told Beijing outright to desist from its intimidations in the WPS, but at least now the world is aware of what is happening. The world is watching.

Another crucial element for the Philippines is the support of the Filipinos no matter how long this takes. We can’t demand for a quick fix to this because the only quick solution is to give up all that real estate above possibly millions of barrels of oil.

Of course it is frustrating to read conflicting reports about the presence or the withdrawal of Chinese ships in Scarborough. But if you demand for updates before the matter is settled with finality, you are bound to get conflicting information.

A negotiation is like a dance where you take steps forward and some back. The execution of particular steps is important, but, ultimately, you are judged for the entire routine.

In a dance-athon of epic proportions, don’t get too flustered at the beginning of the dance.

johnnavg@hotmail.com