After 45 years, Asean loses its consensus voice

By RICARDO SALUDO

[It’s] the first time that Asean is not able to issue the joint communiqué due to bilateral conflict between some Asean members states and a neighboring country—Cambodia

We just wanted a recognition that the Scarborough Shoal was in fact discussed. . . The chair [Cambodia] has consistently opposed any mention. . . and today announced that a joint communiqué ‘cannot be issued‘—Philippines

In the unprecedented failure of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations foreign ministers’ July 9-13 conference to issue a joint communiqué, who won?

Hint: it wasn’t Asean.

For much of its 45-year history, the grouping has punched above its economic, political and military weight in Asian and global affairs largely due to its unperturbed solidarity. In consistently seeking consensus, Asean would never allow differences among member-states or pressures from outside powers to break the unity symbolized by the ten tightly bound rice stalks of its logo.

Now, a crack has tarnished Southeast Asia’s oneness, with the decades-old quest for full agreement even at the cost of partly dissatisfied signatories, giving way to open disagreement. And that, sadly for Asean, opens the door for giant powers to entice its members into their camps to the detriment of the Association’s collective clout and consensus-based harmony.

It’s too early to tell if regional rivals China and America will pull apart the region from Myanmar to Indonesia, but they certainly want to win over the grouping in full or in part. If the Cambodians have proxied for their top aid donor Beijing at the ministerial meeting in their capital Phnom Penh, the Filipinos have been doing the same for Washington, as many would surmise from the photo of US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said to be giving her Philippine counterpart Albert del Rosario a pat on the back at the conference.

If Cambodia seemed intransigent in blocking any mention the disputed shoal, in fact, the Philippines got two big things it wanted in the Asean meeting. For starters, Scarborough Shoal was discussed—not a small concession in a grouping that usually skirts contentious issues. The Association also approved a draft Code of Conduct for discussion with Beijing, complying with Manila’s proposal in the Asean summit in April to finalize its version of the Code before resuming talks with Beijing.

The US promptly called on China to accept the draft Code intended to reduce tensions in disputed areas of the South China Sea. Thus, Washington projected itself as Asean’s supporter in dealing with Beijing on this issue. However, make no mistake about whose agenda the US is ultimately pushing.

“I’ve talked about the breadth of American engagement in this region, especially our work to strengthen economic ties and support democracy and human rights,” Secretary Clinton told media. “This is all part of advancing our vision of an open, just and sustainable regional order for the Asia-Pacific.”

On the other hand, since there seem to have been no major changes in the draft Code from the version crafted in previous China-Asean talks, in effect, the two sides would be resuming negotiations on much the same provisions they had forged in their last meeting. However, Beijing now seems cool to the idea of resuming the decade-old effort to institute a binding Code, saying it would wait till “conditions are ripe.” It certainly does not want to be seen as giving in to US pressure.

In sum, therefore, the Philippines got Scarborough Shoal on the ministerial agenda, as well as its wish for an Asean draft Code of Conduct to be agreed upon before talking again with China on the document. So why couldn’t Manila yield a little to Phnom Penh on keeping mum in the communiqué about the disputed shoal?

Foreign Affairs Secretary del Rosario said some unnamed Asean members supported the Philippine position, including presumably Vietnam, which also wanted South China Sea frictions discussed at the meeting. But if opposing factions in the Association would start counting heads and dividing their house, then the rice stalks of Asean may well begin breaking up, undermining its strength in unity.

So what’s the way forward to resolve the impasse and repair Asean consensus and unity before the next summit on November 18-20? In April, Indonesia sought to minimize frictions with China by saying that it would be consulted on the Code and could observe the grouping’s discussions on the draft. Now, virtually the same Asean-China version is approved for further negotiations.

The Indonesians may have to do more such maneuvering to defuse frictions, especially since both the Cambodians and the Filipinos have not indicated any willingness to compromise. There are several more ministerial deliberations, not to mention the Code talks with China, to forge some consensus and heal divisions.

What if Phnom Penh and Manila refuse to budge? That would only happen if their respective patrons in Beijing and Washington decide to play hardball. In that case, it would be crystal-clear that they are willing to advance their agenda even at the cost of the all-important solidarity that is the key to Asean’s harmony and influence. The ten rice stalks should beware of such self-serving, destabilizing intransigence.

Ricardo Saludo serves Bahay ng Diyos Foundation for church repair. He heads the Center for Strategy, Enterprise & Intelligence, publisher of The CenSEI Report on national and global issues (report@censeisolutions.com).