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Tuesday, February 21, 2012

People's real gut issues: Jobs, food, not Corona

By Winston A. Marbella

A public opinion pollster, Pulse Asia, has announced a survey, conducted nationwide from Nov. 10 to 23, 2011. It found that 45 percent of Filipinos believed that the state of the national economy is the same as it was a year ago.

But more Filipinos said that the state of the economy has deteriorated over the past 12 months (38 percent) compared to those saying it has improved (18 percent).

The sentiment was expressed in response to the question, “If you compare the state of the economy now with that of last year (2010), would you say that the state of the national economy is better, same or worse now?”

Forty-five percent of the respondents said they believed that nothing has changed, a figure lower than the 54 percent recorded in October 2010. However, 38 percent said the economic situation worsened, up from 16 percent, while 18 percent said it improved, but still12 percentage points down from 30 percent in October 2010.

Close to half (47 percent) of those from classes ABC, comprising the rich and middle classes, believed the economy had stagnated, while the D Class (43 percent) and the the poor believed the economy had stagnated.

In Mindanao, more than half of the respondents (57 percent) said the economy turned for the worse, a view shared by 38 percent in both classes ABC and D. These responses point to possible problem areas in the 2013 elections for all local positions and half of the 24 Senate seats. The mid-term elections are considered pivotal because they represent a weather vane of how the people rate Mr. Aquino halfway through his term.


Gut issues

Mr. Aquino has completed his first 18 months, a fourth of his six-year term. Because the economic survey touches on the gut issues that affect the masses, the results represent a general impression that he has not accomplished much. Not much by way of improving jobs, income and bringing more food to the table.

How his moral crusade will hold up against the need for more jobs, higher incomes and food on the table will be judged in the results of the 2013 elections, if not earlier.

Very few Filipinos say that the economy has improved: in the National Capital Region (18 percent), Luzon (16 percent), Visayas (22 percent), Mindanao (17 percent), as well as classes D (19 percent), and classes ABC (all 16 percent.) Among those who say the economy is worse than a year ago, 66 percent were strongly affected by the economic slump, 31 percent were somehow affected and only 3 percent did not feel the impact of the worsening economy.

President Aquino has been criticized for neglecting the economy in his anti-corruption campaign against the past administration. At his yearend media briefing, Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Cayetano Paderanga Jr. confirmed that the economy grew by 3.6 percent in the first three quarters of 2011, lower than the 8.2 percent growth in the same period in 2010. He attributed the decline to the global economic slump and weak exports.

The Pulse Asia survey showed 38% believed that the economy deteriorated in the last 12 months and 18% said it improved. Forty-five percent said it has remained unchanged.


Gut feel

In my reading of people responses to gut economic issues, I have often been amazed by how Filipinos instinctively know what affect their lives the most. In a Pulse Asia survey done at about the same time, and released last month, Filipinos identified the following top five most urgent issues: controlling inflation (56%), increasing the pay of workers (47%), fighting graft and corruption in government (37%), creating more jobs (34%) and reducing poverty.

The disapproval ratings of the Aquino administration have doubled on issues that affect the poorest the most. In October last year, 18% of respondents disapproved of the way the Aquino administration was performing on the issue of poverty reduction. In November this year, the disapproval rating on poverty reduction has soared to 36%, double the level a year ago.

In the November Pulse Asia survey results, more people disapprove (36%) than approve (32%) in the way the current administration is implementing its poverty-reduction programs. The disapproval rating on the government’s programs to create jobs rose from 11% in October last year to 21% in November this year, or a deterioration of 10 percentage points. The number of citizens who disapproved the administration’s performance on job creation has nearly doubled.

On other gut issues the deterioration was equally serious: controlling inflation (from 21% to 37%, or an increase by 16 percentage points), increasing the pay of workers (from 14% to 25%, or by 11 percentage points) and enforcing the law to all, whether influential or ordinary citizens (from 9% to 18%, or by 9 percentage points).


Promise

The promise of a new administration is not going to last much longer. In 2010, the economy grew by 7.3%. In 2011, the first full year under Mr. Aquino, it grew by only 3.7%, roughly half of what it was a year ago.

For many of us, things will continue to get worse before they get better. The world economy is in a slump. Overseas jobs will contract. Exports face a bleak future as worldwide consumer spending goes down.

After the massive public under-spending last year, the Aquino administration is revving up spending early this year. But the impact of public infrastructure spending won't be felt until 2013. Public-Private Partnership projects won’t impact economic growth significantly until next year.

Meanwhile, we will have the political circus to keep us entertained.

But it will mot create more jobs, raise income levels, spur the economy, or bring more food to the poor.

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