By Ricardo
Saludo
“Are
things getting better in our country?” That rhetorical question
from an elderly friend this week identified him among the one-fifth
of Filipinos who do not have trust, approval or satisfaction toward
President Benigno Aquino 3rd. The rest of the nation, going by Pulse
Asia and Social Weather Stations extrapolation, believe and cheer
PNoy.
The state of the nation, however, goes well beyond the
ups and downs of public opinion. Today’s column reviews recent news
to assess where the Philippines is and where it may be headed over
the coming year.
Most crucial to progress is the economy.
Recent headlines make much of the Philippines bucking the global
downturn. But in fact, gross domestic product is merely bouncing back
from last year’s slowdown, induced by state underspending in
pursuit of credit rating upgrades.
Indeed, sustaining growth
demands fundamental initiatives to boost investment over the long
term. This area remains disappointing. While the World Economic
Forum’s latest competitiveness survey, done by the
pro-administration Makati Business Club, lifted the country’s rank
by double digits since last year, two other major reports
disappointed.
In the 2012 World Competitiveness Report by
Switzerland’s IMD business school, with the Asian Institute of
Management as local partner, the Philippines dropped two places to
No. 43. And the UN Conference on Trade and Development World
Investment Report 2012 continued to show low attractiveness for
foreign direct investment and below-potential FDI contribution.
It
doesn’t help that only one public-private partnership project has
been awarded, and new mining policies as well as China tensions are
giving investors pause. Still, with election spending and a bigger
national budget in 2013, the economy looks set to turn in about 5
percent growth this year and next. Not great, but decent. Of greater
worry is hunger’s August increase after the usual summer decline
amid the seasonal rise in construction, tourism and retailing
jobs.
On the political and governance front, continued high
approval ratings for top officials continue to sustain public and
business confidence. President Benigno Aquino 3rd’s grades
rebounded strongly in August, as usual in surveys after the State of
the Nation Address. Also lifting national sentiments and
international perceptions is the preliminary agreement between the
government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front.
Key to the
President’s popularity is the widespread belief that he is honest
and sincere, leading most Filipinos not to give much weight to
criticism over Aquino’s special treatment of associates and allies;
the surge in crime, smuggling and jueteng; his support of the
cybercrime and reproductive health bills; and his open meddling in
the courts with public statements on pending cases. Nor has PNoy’s
treatment of ailing former president Gloria Arroyo stirred much
adverse public reaction.
The coming election campaign will
likely intensify anti-administration rhetoric, although little of it
will likely target Aquino himself, since Vice-President Jejomar Binay
and other leaders of the main opposition coalition, United
Nationalist Alliance, remain pro-PNoy. The expected rise in violence
during the poll campaign will disturb communities, but most blame
will fall on Interior and Local Government Secretary Mar Roxas.
What
could negatively impact the Chief Executive is the failure to
conclude a final peace agreement with the MILF. But as long as the
Arroyo-era ceasefire is preserved, even a delayed accord would not
hurt Aquino much. A bigger threat to his clout would be major UNA
gains in the polls. A larger opposition bloc in Congress could
fiscalize more loudly, resist Palace pressure on bills and
impeachment, and reassert the House’s power of the purse.
Maybe.
On the top administration priority of good governance,
there have been two big steps forward. One is the mid-year
implementation of the Results-Based Performance Monitoring System
(RBPMS) and the end-year payment of performance-based bonuses (PBBs).
If done properly, RBPMS and PBBs should improve public
service.
Another positive is this year’s Social Weather
Stations survey on corruption, which continued the improvements shown
in the 2009 poll. After dropping by nine percentage points to 60
percent, from 71 percent in 2008, the ratio of companies asked for
bribes fell another 12 points over the past two years to 48 percent
this year.
What about China? The Aquino administration’s
policy to allow increasing USD military deployment continues, with
retired general Edilberto Adan, who oversees the Visiting Forces
Agreement, recently confirming further increases in American troop
presence.
This will only exacerbate tensions with Beijing,
which has not only announced plans to build a garrison in the
Spratlys, but also moved a ballistic-missile brigade within striking
distance of the entire Philippines. Expect the country to then join
the US anti-missile defense system and host one of its three X-Band
radar stations in East Asia.
While the increased US alliance
has now made the Philippines a strategic threat and target for China,
it only boosts President Aquino’s standing in defending the
country’s territory and security. Even the loss of Chinese
investment and aid has not diminished support for the policy
about-face from maintaining strong ties with all major powers to
siding with America.
So in coming months, expect moderate
economic growth, rising election-related violence and anti-government
criticism, and further frictions with China (but not enough to drive
Asean into Uncle Sam’s embrace. Plus more of Aquino’s high
ratings and assertive style. At least until next May.
Ricardo
Saludo serves Bahay ng Diyos Foundation for church repair. He heads
the Center for Strategy, Enterprise & Intelligence, publisher of
The CenSEI Report on national and global issues
( report@censeisolutions.com).
No comments:
Post a Comment