Observing disasters, finding salvation

CITY SENSE By Paulo Alcazaren (The Philippine Star) Updated October 22, 2011

Observing disasters, finding salvation.

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Much has changed in the Philippines in the last 150 years; not just climate. In the 19th century there were less than 200,000 people in Manila and its surrounding arrabales. There were only 12 million in the whole country then. Although volcanic eruptions, earthquakes and tsunamis occurred, it was the typhoons and some floods that were seasonal visitors. Today our population has increased exponentially and floods and typhoons are joined by landslides, aside from volcanic eruptions, earthquakes and tsunamis.

Disasters a hundred years ago were mitigated by an early warning system devised by Father Federico Faura. The good father set up the Manila Observatory (MO) in 1865 near the street that today bears his name. The typhoon warning system was started in 1879 and the next year “earthquake observations” were started. The MO, in fact, was our official weather bureau until WW II, saving thousands and aiding ships at sea. After the war government set up its own weather bureau but the MO has continued its mission.

That mission is now more relevant in light of the gargantuan collaborative and multi-disciplinary effort needed to cope with the effects of climate change in the last century. Coupled with this, is the increased risk of disaster brought about by our population booming to about a hundred million today and where these hundred million souls live — millions now in harms way.

This is from a pre-war book on geography with a quiz meant to be answered by 5th and 6th graders! It shows how much more aware we were half a century ago.

This message was made clear by Toni Yulo Loyzaga, current executive director of the MO at a lecture last Tuesday for the 10th Jaime V. Ongpin Annual Memorial Lecture on Public Service in Business and Government. Toni, an Ateneo and Georgetown University alumna, started in the private sector before turning to advocacies related to the environment and sustainability. She was my co-publisher for the book Lungsod Iskwater launched earlier this year. Toni is a straight shooter; no, she does not have an AK under her SUV seat, but that could be her motto — “Action Kaagad.”

Toni always cuts to the chase in dealing with issues. She took the same tact with her lecture, which she titled “2012 (Not the Movie) A Practical Guide to Disaster Risk and Preparedness.” The message was that we need to realize our problems are not like a Hollywood movie, solved in 90 minutes with special effects (or Photoshop). She stated clearly that we need to understand the immensity of the problem, its scale and scope and use real science, along with the data collated by institutions like the MO, for immediate action… or suffer the consequences.

This sense of urgency was reflected in her brisk 40-minute lecture — covering a 10-minute master’s degree in physical and human geography in the context of the Philippines, a 15-minute graphic review of the worst disasters in the last few years, and why they happened (because of the drastic changes in human and physical geography in the last century), and the last 15 minutes outlining a new framework required to address disaster, how the MO measures disasters risk, and finally a five point practical guide to meet the problem head on.

The last floods stayed in the central plains because we allowed dikes and fish pens to block its exit to Manila Bay, also because there is little forest and plant cover in the Sierra Madres to absorb the rainfall or delay its coming down.

The geography presentation was full of maps (collated by MO) and easy to understand graphic showing that “…the Philippines is the bull’s eye of disasters.” 15 million Filipinos live at elevations only ten meters from the water level, therefore susceptible to sea-level change and tsunamis. Another 15 million Filipino children go to schools located in earthquake zones (calling the DepEd, among the many public bodies, which the MO has been having difficulty contacting or persuading to look at these critical issues). And, of course, we seem to build our settlements (both formal and informal settlements) in the wrong places.

Philippine geography and demography show too that the most vulnerable are in those areas of risk …not by coincidence but by the forces of economic-climate change (uneven investment, economic development — or lack of it, lack of access to land or affordable housing in safe sites).

The maps also show a demographic shift of the most at risk to Mindanao and the south. The data, maps and graphics (which seem invisible to officials and policy makers despite almost all being readily available from the MO and the Internet) also show a shift in climate to hotter for the south and wetter for the north; leaving Palawan the least affected but, not uninfluenced by all this drastic change and impending disasters.

Toni then went through a quick recap of the last few disasters from Ondoy of two years ago to the trio of typhoons of last month. She also showed other examples of sites and disasters (full information — and actually the full presentation — on these from their website www.observatory.ph).

The Philippines has the highest number of school kids in schools built on earthquake-prone site in the world; who cares about the airport when thousands of our schoolchildren could die in an earthquake?

The change needed Toni explained after the backgrounder material was a paradigm shift in how we look at disasters. This shift has been adopted by many other countries but ours. We need to shift from a hazard-based to a vulnerability-based approach. Simply speaking, we have been addressing the problems as and after they happen, rather than before but anticipating where and how it will happen — taking steps to prevent and mitigate rather than to declare emergencies, rescue and rehabilitate (and build yet again in hazard prone areas).

Toni stated the truth simply: that we are the third-riskiest country in the world in terms of disasters but we simply attack the symptoms and not the root causes of disasters. The way to reverse this is to arm ourselves with science and information — as gathered by institutions like MO (and she explained the various types of data-gathering, analysis and programs of the MO — again, please visit their website) …then use this information to guide policy and institute action.

Toni ended with five simple guidelines to action:

1. Every event has a big picture. Disasters are a dynamic combination of hazards, exposure and vulnerability. (Narrow analysis or frameworks for action will not mitigate disaster or prevent it from happening next year.)

Metropolitan Manila’s growth in the last 30 years has decreased open green space and replaced it with hard concrete (yellow) — which makes water flow faster and hence floods to more quickly swell.

2. Climate change changes everything. (People have to realize that using historical benchmarks to guide policy or build infrastructure do not hold ...sorry …any water, since the magnitude of climate change and un-controlled development are unprecedented and make for more than just perfect storms of disaster.)

3. Find the weakest link. Vulnerability is the most critical factor in disasters. Preparedness means why, where and how you are vulnerable. (The most vulnerable are the poor but even the rich cannot escape the mayhem now …and you can’t know the extent, place and window for disaster to happen unless you have up to date hazard maps, demographic studies, the data and the science).

4. Make a plan, set targets, build in redundancy, be strategic. (And review these constantly, fund it, train all the personnel and the public …and when disaster cannot be prevented, stick to the plan. Look at how the Japanese coped.)

5. Learn to ask for help and work with others. Toni cited PAGASA’s hesitance to share information. One of the three reactors at the lecture, former Secretary of Defense and head of the NDCC Gilberto Teodoro said, “A disaster is not a place for clashing egos.” The work that needs to be done is interdisciplinary, and cuts across economic classes, between levels of government, civic society and politics. Otherwise nothing will ever be done or sustained.

Pedring flooded the central plains because physical planning was not coordinated across the entire region.

The two other reactors chimed in what Toni succinctly presented. Environmentalist, former DENR chief and current presidential advisor on climate change Bebet Gozun and disaster science expert Dr. Mahar Lagmay of the UP National Institute of Geological Science both agreed with what was presented and added or expounded on a number of points — the need for a national land use plan for each town, city, province, region and the whole Philippines; the fact that Baguio, because of climate change, is getting the most rain of any place in the Philippines (and therefore is another major disaster waiting to happen); the imperative that we need to understand that water from heavy rain seeks the lowest and easiest route of escape (so don’t block its path with fishponds or urban sprawl — explaining the recent Central Plains floods).

An animated Q&A session followed, which brought out the interconnectedness of economic planning, the participation of the private sector, the implications of population, and the importance of governance (and a new framework for cooperation between departments and LGUS, cities and provinces).

Thanks to venues like this annual JV Ongpin Memorial Lecture (which, by the way, focuses on issues of public service in business and government); we now have a clear picture of what to do. We know now how to observe, analyze, map and project. We understand the science and the implications and interconnectedness of most of the important issues.

We now understand the folly of unmitigated physical development without climate and socially-sensitive plans. We now know that political boundaries and political decision-making crumble like weak seawalls when big waves come. Our salvation lies therefore in what action we now take, and what changes we make in ourselves, before the next disaster strikes.

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Feedback is welcome. Please e-mail the writer at paulo.alcazaren@gmail.com.