Have you ever come across the term “diversionary war”? This tactic is one of oldest in the playbook of leaders. The phrase is used to describe a situation wherein leaders “facing domestic unrest and instability may provoke or instigate an international conflict, in order to generate a rally-around-the-flag effect; domestic cohesion and stability is improved by some apparently overarching, immediate threat from another country”.
Bush, Sr facing domestic issues in USA ? No problemo -- occupy Kuwait.
Sarkozy facing domestic issues in France? No problemo -- attack Libya.
Bush, Jr facing domestic issues in USA ? No problemo -- occupy Iraq.
Obama facing domestic issues in USA ? No problemo -- occupy Afghanistan.
Would they actually do that? I don’t know.
How does this apply to the Philippines?
Obviously, the Philippines does not want to have an international conflict with China. Riding roughshod over those trawlers was certainly asking for it. What if China did the same thing to the Philippines -- and more? What will Aquino do?
Have any of the Philippine presidents used diversionary wars to bolster sagging popular approval?
Your guess is as good as mine.
Thus when major Philippine dailies carried the news that
such news does not enrage a citizenry already burdened by the impositions of the Philippine corporatocracy.
Why? Because the mainstream media -- notably ABS-CBN was busy fomenting and stoking passions presumably to create more hostility -- and more stuff to cover, ergo, more advertising revenue.
After all, the Philippines has a “domestic” conflict -- that can be played up anytime by an incumbent anytime he wants to take some heat off an extremely incompetent handling of domestic issues -- investments are down and investors are leaving, economy is barely moving, and more wasteful government spending that burdens taxpayers -- and harms innocent civilians.
Here’s another phrase -- “Military Keynesianism” -- government devotes large amounts of spending to the military in an effort to increase economic growth. Knowing the Philippines -- we know what happens to spending -- they wind up in the private pockets of generals and legislators -- and the soldiers just get promises, long delays, and measly pay.
Not to mention that anytime the AFP generals need to promote someone or get promoted themselves -- they do so by distinguishing themselves in battle somewhere in Mindanao. And how convenient to have a perpetual unsettled conflict to serve as a backdrop for promotions including wealth from kickbacks, pabaon, and what not -- at the expense of innocent civilians -- and even, soldiers. You see -- if the conflict in Mindanao stops -- that means, no more kickbacks for generals. No more weapon sales. No more combat pay. And for those entities who make a living on how to kill people more effectively -- the prospect of peace is simply unacceptable.
As you see -- Mexico, Ireland, Luxembourg, Iceland, Papua New Guinea spend less than 0.5% of GDP on defense while the Philippines defense spending stands at 0.8% of GDP as of 2009 -- that’s a huge amount of money gentlemen.
And speaking of secession on top of the continuous calls to secede from the Philippines -there are already 10 million Filipinos who have UNILATERALLY seceded from the Philippines -- and who are looking forward to become citizens of states that actually work.
Ten million is a nation state by itself. A nation state of people who didn’t take up arms -- but voted with their feet. Perhaps we should seriously consider a new political future for the erstwhire Philippines -- and break it up into smaller nation states like those of the Caribbean. That way -- if Manila wants its EDSA and occupy whatever -- they can do so anytime they want without dragging Mindanao into their idiocy.
But I digress, after all this post is about HIGH RATES OF ELECTRIC POWER in the Philippines. Filipinos keep on complaining about how high the rates are and they don’t do anything about it. Well, there’s the usual rallies -- “occupy this”, “occupy that” -- which at the end of the day come up with squat.
There are many reasons being presented in the Philippine media as to why the cost of electricity is high. The thing is given that all countries purchase oil at more or less within the same rate given by OPEC -- why is it that the suppliers of electricity in the Philippines are able to get away with the exorbitant rates?
I’ll keep it simple -- when Filipinos repeal the law of supply and demand -- that’s what we get, the electric rates that only MERALCO, VECO, and DLPC will love.
Yup -- this is what Filipino soldiers are dying for -- MERALCO, PLDT, GLOBE, PAL and all the oligarch companies that fry fliptards in their own lard.
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According to the world bank in 2009 the military spending of the Philippines is .8%=.008 not 8%=.08 of GDP. The U.S. at the time is 4.7% there’s no way the Philippines can spend more than the U.S. in military spending, U.S. is involved in at least 3 wars.
[Reply]
Vincenzo B. Arellano Reply:
October 24th, 2011 at 11:50 pm
Desperado talaga ang mga rebelde na ito eh.
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Auriga Reply:
October 25th, 2011 at 1:22 am
I’m not going to argue about whether it should be 8% or 0.8%, but 8% Philippine GDP is not necessarily bigger than 4.7% of US GDP. That would only be true if Philippine GDP = US GDP, but… I think you get the point.
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Vincenzo B. Arellano Reply:
October 25th, 2011 at 4:33 am
Stop lying and defending the rebels.
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DaidoKatsumi Reply:
October 25th, 2011 at 4:53 am
And stop lying on using your Yellow Propaganda machine. This blog post has a point. This is why things get worse after EDSA. Totoo iyon.
Auriga Reply:
October 25th, 2011 at 6:17 am
It’s not lying.
It’s called elementary Mathematics.
BongV Reply:
October 25th, 2011 at 6:29 am
it’s 0.8% – typo. my bad.
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BongV Reply:
October 25th, 2011 at 6:31 am
it’s a typo guys – get over it.
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“Perhaps we should seriously consider a new political future for the erstwhire Philippines — and break it up into smaller nation states like those of the Caribbean. That way — if Manila wants its EDSA and occupy whatever — they can do so anytime they want without dragging Mindanao into their idiocy.”
- I’m not in favor of separatists ideas. Manila is just the perfect place to demonstrate because it is the capital and Malacañang is seated there. People only demonstrate in the province mostly when it comes to local issues. It doesn’t mean that the people of Manila control the entire affairs of the state. Manila is just a venue. The people who participate in demonstrations come from different provinces also even as far as Mindanao. I went to Minanao a couple of months ago. The place is really lagging behind Luzon and Visayas because of Islamic separatists. The Philippines is already a small country. Let’s not further divide it.
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Ozneh Reply:
October 25th, 2011 at 4:46 pm
The place is really lagging behind Luzon and Visayas because of Islamic separatists.
-there are other reaasons but I blame the conflct more.
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BongV Reply:
October 25th, 2011 at 5:06 pm
these areas are lagging in development due to flawed protectionist policies. think about it – there’s a lot of arab investments that could have gone into ARMM – BUT – our constitution kept them out.
something’s gotta give
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Ozneh Reply:
October 26th, 2011 at 1:27 pm
With regard to pointing out that protectionist policies are to blame why ARMM is lagging behind, I don’t think so. ARMM is lagging behind the rest of the country which is under the same protectionist policy so it’s not the policy causing ARMM’s underdevelopment. There are potential investors in ARMM, but they are more reluctant to invest to the region because of the ongoing conflict. The volatile situation in Mindanao keeps investors out.
BongV Reply:
October 26th, 2011 at 1:58 pm
there’s a lot of Arab, Malaysian, Indonesian, Kuwaiti, Qatar investors who will put money in ARMM – but they are prevented by 60/40 from doing so.
Ozneh Reply:
October 26th, 2011 at 2:35 pm
It is true that potential investors are prevented by the 60/40 policy. But it applies to the rest of the country not in ARMM only. ARMM is under the same situation with the rest of the regions in the Philippines. There are also potential investors in Manila, Cebu, Davao, and other provinces. If the 60/40 only applies to ARMM, then blame the policy why ARMM is lagging behind the rest of the country. As I have pointed out earlier, it is the volatile situation in the region. What an experience that I was able to go there.=)
BongV Reply:
October 26th, 2011 at 4:12 pm
volatility is an outcome of bad economics – there are Arab investors who are willing to provide roads and tollways to ARMM – but.. the GRP will not allow them – unless these go into joint venture with the Phil government or Phil corps.. still the 60/40.
Ozneh Reply:
October 26th, 2011 at 4:59 pm
Cause and effect relationship: For you – Bad economy is the cause and the effect is volatility (conflict in Mindanao).
For me – Conflict in Mindanao is the cause and the effect is bad economy.
If bad economy is the cause of conflict, what is the reason for having a bad economy in ARMM? The 60/40? It applies to the entire country so all regions must have bad economies also which would have also resulted in a volatie situation. But the conflict only happens in Mindanao. Their leftist and separatist ideas cause conflict and the conflict they cause results into a bad economy not the other way around.
BongV Reply:
October 26th, 2011 at 5:05 pm
conflict is all about resources…
and the GRP government does not want the moros developing the gold and oil – unless the GRP has a first dig…
the moros don’t like the idea
they go to war..
ECONOMICS.
why do they want to tap the gold and oil – obviously for economic reasons – there’s not enough investments coming in – which are being kept out by the constitution.
palebluedot_ Reply:
October 25th, 2011 at 10:29 pm
“The Philippines is already a small country. Let’s not further divide it.”
I do not mind living in a small country. If Mindanao is to separate itself from the Philippines, institute a constitution that is devoid of economic limitations, such as that 60/40 policy idiotic people from the Philippines are so proud of, and work its way towards an island-nation where Muslims, Christians and those with no religion are living harmoniously by first cutting its ties with Luzon’s stupid leaders, I will forever stay here. What I really hate is the fact that the media cult in Luzon is trying to show to the idiotic Filipinos in Visayas and Luzon that we here in Mindanao are always in conflict with each other, that our island is terrifying place to visit and that we are war freaks. Dang! I did not even know there’s a so-called war going on near where I am staying until I read this article…
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BongV Reply:
October 26th, 2011 at 7:23 am
Singapore is smaller than Mindanao… and it hires flips as MAIDS
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Ozneh Reply:
October 26th, 2011 at 11:31 am
Muslim and Christians will only live together harmoniously if some Muslims will give up their extremist ideas. Also, Luzon’s leaders are elected by the whole country. I’ve been there and never had a bad experience though I had fears of travelling there with just my officemate as my companion. Actually, the reason I got there is because no one volunteered in the office to go there to conduct our audit. Even those who were originally assigned didn’t want to go there. I just accepted the assignment because I wanted to tell my friends that I’ve been there. Yes, the people of Luzon and Visayas have a bad impression at Mindano. Your sentiments are the same as the airport taxi driver we had a conversation with. He blames the media for exaggerating things. You also cannot blame us because conflicts happen in different parts of Mindanao. If I were to go back there I will still fear that something bad might happen.
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What would a “mandurokot” in Quiapo will do, to pick your pocket? Divert your attention…The Aquino administration, intentionally ceded a portion of the Philippines, to the MILF. In order, to create the present Mindanao conflict…He ceded this territory, without us, or the soldiers knowing it.
So, the soldiers were killed, when they strayed in the ceded territory.
Look at how the Lopez Media, is creating disinformation and Media spin. This will take your attention from: high power rates, high prices of basic commodities, more and higher taxes. It will take your attention away from the Hacienda Luisita issue. The way his fellow Oligarchs is controlling the economy. In truth, they are monopolizing everything…22 soldiers must be sacrificed to attain this diversion…
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BongV Reply:
October 25th, 2011 at 5:10 pm
the bone of contention is whether – it is philippine territory or not – as far as the moro are concerned – it is moro territory annexed by the philippine government
the basis being that spain ceded territory to the US – territory which the spanish never exercised sovereignty on – and even paid dues to the sultanate
that the US further occupied a territory that did not belong to it (based on the terriritories ceded by Spain during to the US) in the treaty of Paris-
is source of fierce resistance which continues to this day.
of course – the weapons makers love conflict. its good for revenue.
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Hyden Toro Reply:
October 26th, 2011 at 1:45 pm
We are all citizens of this world…to fight for territories, in a small space in this vast universe, is immature…We can all live together, as decent human beings…the issue here is large corporation business monopolies….controlling the prices of our basic necessities. Of course, they have their Puppet in Malacanang. Look at how the Lopez Media, is giving news spin for damage control. Both diversion and disinformation…
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BongV Reply:
October 26th, 2011 at 2:01 pm
the moros were living in peace until…
deluded conquistadores thought the moros needed saving from themselves
and the delusion is passed on to the indios which was conquered by the conquistadores – who now think that they – the indios are the new conquistadores –
thus you have a situation where a group of people who want to chart their own economic and political destiny – separate from the dysfunctional anti-freedom and anti-rights Philippine society.
for all you know – the moros can pull out a Dubai – and even hire Filipinos as MAIDS.
“…Not to mention that anytime the AFP generals need to promote someone or get promoted themselves — they do so by distinguishing themselves in battle somewhere in Mindanao. And how convenient to have a perpetual unsettled conflict to serve as a backdrop for promotions including wealth from kickbacks, pabaon, and what not — at the expense of innocent civilians — and even, soldiers. You see — if the conflict in Mindanao stops — that means, no more kickbacks for generals. No more weapon sales. No more combat pay. And for those entities who make a living on how to kill people more effectively — the prospect of peace is simply unacceptable…”
You got it right… permanent war for a permanent cash cow. !!!
BTW this is not only in Philippines, it is world wide.
[Reply]
Ozneh
You said : “…The Philippines is already a small country. Let’s not further divide it…”
I disagree on this. The population of Philippines is greater that the population of Malaysia, France, Thailand, Spain, Taiwan, Germany and many others countries.
Have a look and you will see that Philippines is one of the biggest in the world, standing in position No12.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population
Overpopulated and still growing at phenomenal rate !!!!
Sky is the limit…
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RETURNOFTHECOMEBACK Reply:
October 25th, 2011 at 8:16 pm
AMININ NIYO NA, MGA IPIS ANG MGA PINOY, AMIRITE?
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Auriga Reply:
October 25th, 2011 at 9:17 pm
“I disagree on this. The population of Philippines is greater that the population of Malaysia, France, Thailand, Spain, Taiwan, Germany and many others countries. “
Kudos for comparing the Philippines to developed countries.
Bong already laid out points that counter all that in the previous article, so I won’t delve into that.
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Ozneh Reply:
October 26th, 2011 at 10:56 am
I was talking about the size of the country in terms of area not population. With regard to the population issue, there’s no problem as long as the country can sustain it which we cannot. We should be discriminate when it comes to implementing population policies. We must only target poor families because they are the one causing the growth rate to unsustainable levels. Population policy is an issue of poor families only unless we live in Singapore or Maldives.
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BongV Reply:
October 26th, 2011 at 11:04 am
population growth declines when societies shift from agrarian to industrial. under agrarian societies big family size means lower labor cost, and higher productivity in the farm. in industrial societies – big family size equals high child raising costs.
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Ozneh Reply:
October 26th, 2011 at 11:34 am
And yet we’re shifting to industrial..
BongV Reply:
October 26th, 2011 at 1:18 pm
not really… it’s still an agrarian economy at heart.. and there’s a minimal industrial base – repacking and assembly isn’t exactly manufacturing
Ozneh Reply:
October 26th, 2011 at 1:34 pm
We are a newly industrialized country. People nowadays don’t want to plow their fields anymore. They want a high earning job. There’s rapid urbanization happening in our country which is also true to other emerging nations. We are more of a service economy rather than agrarian. We are industrializing and our population is booming.
BongV Reply:
October 26th, 2011 at 1:56 pm
NICs are countries whose economies have not yet reached First World status but have, in a macroeconomic sense, outpaced their developing counterparts.
I don’t consider the philippines as a newly industrialized country – that’s for Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and Singapore.
rather, the Philippines is a developing economy – not an NIC
let us not mistake a service economy for an industrial economy – in an industrial economy – you actually make stuff – not just assemble it.
Ozneh Reply:
October 26th, 2011 at 2:09 pm
NICs are countries whose economies have not yet reached First World status but have, in a macroeconomic sense, outpaced their developing counterparts.
-Exactly the definition of the Philippines. If you got the definition of NIC on the internet I guess you would have also found the list of NICs which includes the Philippines. Also, here is the composition of our GDP:
GDP – composition by sector: agriculture: 13.9%
industry: 31.3%
services: 54.8% (2010 est.)
Ozneh Reply:
October 26th, 2011 at 2:25 pm
Also, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore are first world countries not NICs which are neither a 3rd world or a 1st world country.
BongV Reply:
October 26th, 2011 at 2:28 pm
Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore are the original NICs
Japan and South Korea have since joined the OECD.
The Philippines with more than 50% *SERVICES* – is not industrial
Ozneh Reply:
October 26th, 2011 at 2:50 pm
All 1st world countries were NICs if we’re going to follow its definition. Because it is inevitable not to get on that stage. They were NICs and now they are 1st world countries. At present, the NICs are Philippines, Mexico, etc. I’m not an expert on how to evaluate a country if it is newly industrialized or not. But economists, organizations, and experts around the world says so. If the Philippines is not industrial, the more it is not agricultural. If based on what you say on your previous posts that the growth rate of a population depends on wether it is industrial or agricultural, then it must decline.
BongV Reply:
October 26th, 2011 at 4:11 pm
these NIC countries used to be developing economies – just where the Philippines is now
- however these countries have moved on from just being developing economies – while the Philippines remains stuck – getting on that stage is not inevitable.
agriculture still stands at 14.9% of GDP; – the so-called “industry” isn’t really – value-creating manufacturing; it’s not industrial as far as am concerned. the transition from agricultural to non-agricultural however, does, reduce population growth as shown by the following:
1. Population growth rate decreased from 3.0% to 1.8%, for the period from 1960 to 2009.
2. Birth rate decreased from 26.3% to 25.68%, for the period from 2003 to 2010.
3. Death rate went down from 5.6% to 5.06%, for the period from 2003 to 2010.
4. Fertility rate went down from 7% to 3.1%, for the period from 1960 to 2008.
5. Life Expectancy at Birth increased for the period from 2003 to 2010.
the point of course is that – whether we are industrializing fast enough – and the answer is NO.
Ozneh Reply:
October 26th, 2011 at 4:46 pm
It is inevitable for 1st world countries today not to get on the NIC stage because they cannot bypass the stages of development a country undergoes. You believe that the Philippines is still not an NIC even if experts believe that we are already an NIC just because you have a different opinion with regard to the true picture of our economy. Let’s be objective, numbers don’t lie and it shows that we are already a newly industrialized country despite flawed economic policies you are pointing out. Also, we are industrializing fast enough and part of the booming Asia pacific. We are even listed on the Next 11 emerging economies after the BRICs.
BongV Reply:
October 26th, 2011 at 5:06 pm
the point is not whether you get to develop without becoming an NIC
– the point is the Philippines has been bypassed – and is desperate to be called NIC
but the Philippines is retrogressing – investments are down, unemployment is down, deficit is up – Aquino is messing up BIG TIME ))
Ozneh Reply:
October 26th, 2011 at 5:24 pm
On the brighter side, our credit rating is improving, our ranking in the most corrupt government is sliding, and we still have a robust economy. Aquino maybe not that good but I think we didn’t have a choice among the candidates. And yes, unemployment is down. (not a typo)
Also, we didn’t insist being called an NIC. We are called an NIC based on their studies.
I would like to demonstrate through hard evidence, combined with stock market charts, to you guys what to expect in the next five years but I don’t know how to insert them.
I will try some other time. Perhaps Bong can help me?
Briefly, there will be a world wide chaos/war in about 5 years from now. Like in any similar situation, the population numbers will be seriously altered.
Climate change will not help.
Geophysical events are a real threat.
Try to remember this date : 27th of January 2016.
I hope to be back with more.
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BongV Reply:
October 26th, 2011 at 8:48 am
just post the link to the image or use the img tag – here’s a reference –http://codex.wordpress.org/Embeds
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balutpenoy Reply:
October 26th, 2011 at 12:22 pm
I hope you will include psychological dynamics (e.g. game theory, asymmetric information, swarm theory, etc.) in your thesis as most economic-centric explanations do not bother include the ‘human’ side of things. btw, you guys might want to visit this site (mostly for libertarian-ish peeps): http://www.friesian.com
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RETURNOFTHECOMEBACK Reply:
October 27th, 2011 at 1:55 am
Who cares about that date. The date to watch is December 21, 2012, because that may very well be the last date of modern human civilization.
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balutpenoy Reply:
October 27th, 2011 at 3:04 pm
In what sense? Because the end of the Mayan calendar cycle is the end of the world? LOL
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While ‘da Pinoys’ are wondering where or how they will get their food on the table there are equally important events going on in the world and not necessarily in the direction that would help us as humans. At the end of December 2010 the Israelis officials have called back home all of their ambassadors for a special secret meeting http://edition.presstv.ir/detail/114663.html . Not even 2 months later, In February of this year 2011 there was a similar secret meeting held in Washingtonhttp://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message1353675/pg1 . All 260 US ambassadors were recalled from all US embassies all over the world to be present and there was almost no media coverage of the event. What makes these THE BIG EVENTS is the fact that it was unprecedented in Israel and US history. Add secrecy to it and you have a subject for creating the wildest conspiracy theories. Eight months later (October 2011) this important event is completely forgotten. Fortunately a few of us are here to re-analyse the event. So what has happen since February? Actually, nothing much so far. The economy is still in its down-trend, unemployment is steadily rising, banksters are still free and wining and dining (we are still waiting to see if anyone of those behind the 2008 melt down will go to jail), the US dollar is still at approximately the same level as in February 2011 and so is the SP500. Reading this, one could almost think that it is business as usual and indeed nothing has changed. Well not exactly, not if you consider the sheer enthusiasm behind OWS (Occupy Wall Street) movement. It is rapidly gaining traction all over the globe, so-much-so that wide spread rioting will almost certainly erupt soon on US soil and perhaps even world wide. Judging from what I see it could easily happen before X-Mas and only God knows where or how it will end.
See the chart to see how it looks on SP500.
http://img98.imageshack.us/img98/2480/usdollarshorttrem.jpg
More to come…
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This should work.
http://img802.imageshack.us/img802/2480/usdollarshorttrem.jpg
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Sorry guys but it didn’t work so here is another try.
http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/802/usdollarshorttrem.jpg/
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OK one more try
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OK I tried too many times and I can’t get it right. All I get is all charts at the same time.
So just go through all of it (only 7 charts) and you’ll have an idea.
No wonder I see nobody posting images…
My question is this: Could it be that the US Ambassadors meeting in February had anything to do with OWS? After all it is global. It may still be early to draw conclusions but if the US embassies all over the world become a target of angry demonstrators then we will certainly have a valid reason to believe that the February’s secret meeting was at least partly held in anticipation of OWS. Unfortunately for all of us there are also other theories as well. One of them may sound cataclysmic. It is probably not true but never-the-less just the fact that we are facing record after record number of strong earthquakes http://www.irishweatheronline.com/news/earth-science/geology/usgs-reports-record-number-of-strong-earthquakes-in-2011/41499.html is something to ponder about. Consider the diminishing magnetism of the earth which could precipitate us into Ice Age rather than global warminghttp://opinion.financialpost.com/2011/08/26/lawrence-solomon-science-now-settled/ and then consider the D.U.MB. s (Deep Underground Military Bases) being built all over the globe. These are not nuclear shelters, you do not build nuclear shelters 2 to 5 miles underground. These are built against cosmic rays that can’t penetrate that deep. More to come…
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Finally, here is the BIG PROBLEM!!! The American dollar. It is also my answer to the main reason of secrecy behind the US and Israeli ambassadors meetings. We all know how significant this is, that is why I have made a basic technical analysis so that you can easily understand. Exclusively and only for http://www.antipinoy.com There is nothing to panic yet but we are definitely approaching the final abyss. God help all of us here on earth when that day comes. It is coming folks, do not even think that the $USD be saved, it won’t! The date is already set: 27th of January 2016.http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2006/01/27/algore_we_have_ten_years_left_before_earth_cooksThosewho will not be ready to face the challenges of financial collapse will simply perish! No jokes here. ———————————————————————————————————————-
This was my first major post and unfortunately I still don’t know how to post images one at the time.
Eventually I’ll get it.
[Reply]
Dumdum Reply:
October 29th, 2011 at 1:43 pm
Your attempts to grasp anything and everything you can find and shoehorn it all into one big conspiracy theory that isn’t even related at all to the article you’re commenting on is highly amusing.
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@Dumdum
Sorry if my article was not convincing. From now on I will be brief but clear with comments.
Here is an article that is more appropriate for the post.
http://www.philstar.com/Article.aspx?articleId=742040&publicationSubCategoryId=63
And this is my comment to it:
Yeah, tell me about the BS promises. Neither side will come to any compromise… 100% GUARANTEED !!! They both, Philippines and China, will want and will need a war as a diversion from the soon coming REAL internal problems. Too many peoples for too few jobs = WAR.
Puerto Princessa City, where I live, is suspiciously in a hotel building spree, too many hotel rooms for the number of customers. When one thinks what those hotel rooms were used for in any war stricken country, one can only question if someone knows what is next.
For an idea see the movie HOTEL RWANDA.
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