The politics of 13-10

Impeachment

The politics of 13-10

By RICARDO SALUDO

AFTER the 13-10 Senate vote last week to respect the Supreme Court restraining order on the Chief Justice’s dollar accounts, many of his supporters became hopeful. With thirteen senators — five more than required to block his removal — seemingly able to stand up to Palace pressures and inducements, Renato Corona may yet beat the rap.

But the TRO vote to keep foreign currency accounts secret was, of course, far less important than the coming guilty-or-not-guilty decision. For the big one Malacañang will wheel in even heavier guns in the battle to get at least 16 senator-judges to convict. And from last week’s division of the Senate, it seems PNoy already has ten.

While all jurors will always insist that they vote on principle, there are undeniable political considerations. Liberal Party stalwarts Franklin Drilon, Teofisto Guingona 3rd, and Francisco Pangilinan support the LP chairman’s agenda — and party president Mar Roxas’s aim to become vice-president through a favorable Supreme Court decision on his election protest against VP Jejomar Binay (see Feb. 10 column).

Panfilo Lacson and Antonio Trillanes 4th are not only implacably against former president Gloria Arroyo and her appointees. They also owe Aquino big for the amnesty granted to Oakwood mutineer Trillanes, and the Solicitor-General’s move not to appeal the quashing of the Dacer-Corbito double murder charges against Lacson.

Alan Peter Cayetano may seem an unlikely PNoy supporter, having campaigned for Senator Manuel Villar during the 2010 presidential polls. Nor does he need Aquino’s backing for re-election to the Senate next year: he ranked 3rd-5th place in Pulse Asia’s November 2011 survey of possible 2012 senatorial candidates.

Perhaps Alan Peter’s anti-Arroyo stance is behind his pro-impeachment position. Maybe he is angling for a slot in the LP 2013 slate and even vice-president in 2016, especially since he and his sister Pia give the administration not one, but two precious votes in the Senate. Whatever the reason, it isn’t the first time brother and sister, formerly Lakas-CMD, changed political colors.

Rounding out the ten thumbing noses at the TRO were longtime Lakas-CMD loyalist Lito Lapid, erstwhile Arroyo ally Edgardo Angara, and former Liberal Sergio Osmeña 3rd. Osmeña continued to support Aquino even after resigning as his campaign manager in 2010. Angara meanwhile may no longer run next year, but his son Sonny, a prosecution spokesman, could ride on his name recognition. But with the younger Angara’s borderline Pulse Asia ranking, he needs PNoy’s backing.

Popular action star Lapid has two reasons to oblige President Aquino: his wife Marissa and his son Mark. The latter remains Philippine Tourism Authority head, despite being an Arroyo appointee and stirring disdain from then Tourism Secretary Alberto Lim. Lim reputedly quit last August partly because Aquino would not replace the PTA boss in order to win his father’s vote in the then-impending Senate trial of impeached Ombudsman Merceditas Gutierrez. As for Mrs. Lapid, she needs presidential and diplomatic appeals in her money smuggling case in Las Vegas.

What about the TRO-abiding thirteen? Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile and Protempore Jinggoy Estrada were both re-elected in 2010 and don’t need PNoy’s campaign support next year. Nor would they get it; as Binay allies, they wouldn’t have been welcome in the administration ticket.

If only to boost Binay’s line-up, Enrile and Estrada have reason to erode PNoy’s clout. The VP’s senatorial slate may include Estrada’s half-brother JV Ejercito and Juan Ponce Enrile Jr., who are ranked 5th-12th in the Pulse Asia survey. Re-electionists likely on the Binay camp are, for sure, PDP-Laban’s lone senator, Aquilino Pimentel 3rd, son of PDP founder Nene, and probably staunch Enrile loyalist Gregorio Honasan 2nd.

There are personal issues too. Estrada wants to spare Corona from an unfair trial, which Jinggoy believes his father Erap suffered in 2001. And Enrile has longstanding issues with the Aquinos, as jailer of PNoy’s father, accused coup plotter against his mother, and the target of his rumored moves to oust the Senate President.

Also elected in 2010 are Majority Floor Leader Tito Sotto, Lakas-CMD president Bong Revilla, Bongbong Marcos, and LP man Ralph Recto; they won’t be due for re-election until PNoy is a lameduck president in 2016. Why would Recto go against the LP line? Some cite his and Corona’s common Batangas roots. Maybe. Or perhaps he voted to respect the TRO to be seen as impartial now, even if he may eventually convict Corona.

As survey topnotchers last November, Loren Legarda and Chiz Escudero don’t need administration backing either. Being second-termers, Manuel Villar and Joker Arroyo also don’t have to woo PNoy. Nor would they care to. Villar wouldn’t back the man who thwarted his presidential ambition, and Joker has long criticized the administration’s legal failings, despite his decades-old ties with the President’s family.

As for Miriam Defensor Santiago, the incoming International Court of Justice magistrate would hate to be tarnished by legally dubious actions just before joining the world’s paramount judicial body. Enrile too is keen to show nothing but complete adherence to the rule of law as he nears the end of half a century of public service at age 92 in 2016.

Clearly, there are much bigger stakes in the impeachment trial than even P100 million.

Ricardo Saludo serves Bahay ng Diyos Foundation for church repair. He heads the Center for Strategy, Enterprise & Intelligence, publisher of The CenSEI Report on national and global issues (report@censeisolutions.com).