THERE is no doubt about it. Rodrigo Roa Duterte has become a certified Teflon President. Many of his critics were hoping that his satisfaction, trust and approval ratings would be dented by the Recto Bank incident.
But when the results came out, what we saw was a President retaining his phenomenally high numbers.
In both the SWS and Pulse Asia surveys, he slayed all negative expectations. His net satisfaction ratings in the SWS survey were even his highest.
However, as social scientists will tell you, the real story in the results of any survey is not in the aggregate numbers but in the disaggregated results. And here, one will find interesting trends which the President and his team should reflect on.
While the President received a net satisfaction rating of +68 in the SWS survey, which is the highest he earned so far, it is not significantly different from what he earned in March where he got a +66. In fact, his overall satisfaction rating of 80 percent was only 1 point higher than the 79 percent he obtained in March.
What is interesting, however, is when we disaggregate the results by region, income class and educational attainment. It should be noted that the President in fact suffered declines in net satisfaction ratings in all regions except the balance of Luzon. He fell in NCR (from +61 to +59), Visayas (from +69 to +66) and even Mindanao (from +88 to +81). These losses were however compensated by the rest of Luzon where his net satisfaction rating rose from +56 to +65.
In terms of income class, President Duterte suffered declines in the A crowd (from +69 to +58) and the BCD crowd (from +83 to +76). But he retained his very good rating overall because the E crowd gave him a net satisfaction rating of +68, up from +58. While he suffered a decline among the college-educated (from +74 to +63), his net satisfaction rating among the high school graduates rose from +67 to +74.
In summary, the President’s net satisfaction rating declined in NCR, Visayas, Mindanao, classes ABCD and among the college-educated. He, however, gained points in balance Luzon, class E and among high school graduates.
Despite the President’s friendliness with China, and the palpable pro-China stance of his loyal base, most Filipinos find the Asian giant untrustworthy. In the recent survey conducted by SWS on the trust accorded by Filipinos in other countries, China’s net trust rating further dipped from the minus 6 it got in March to minus 24 in June, which is a shift from a rating of “neutral” to “poor.” On the other hand, the US, Japan, New Zealand, Canada and Australia maintained positive net trust ratings, with the US remaining as the most trusted.
While it can be said that the mistrust in China did not affect the level of trust for the President, it can also be said that the high satisfaction, approval and trust ratings of the President failed to negate the low level of trust that the people have towards its main ally.
It is tempting to label Filipino behavior as reflected in the surveys, particularly on the issue of China’s unpopularity in the context of the President’s popularity, as dissonant. Some people try to explain this conundrum by dismissing the China issue as one that doesn’t resonate with the people. But this could entail some risk.
The President’s numbers may have not been affected by the Recto Banks controversy. However, and as the recent Pulse Asia pre-SONA survey indicates, the disaggregated figures of the issues which people would like the President to address in his SONA tell you a different story.
The China issue is fourth among issues that people would like the President to address, next only to the gut issues of wages, prices of goods and employment. In fact, the aggregate results reveal that more Filipinos consider the China issue as more important than the drug issue. The disaggregated results reveal more interesting trends. The issue on drugs is more important than the China issue only in the Visayas and Mindanao, and in class E. What is most interesting is that for NCR and classes ABC, the China issue is the most important issue that people wish the President should address in his SONA, higher than wages, prices and employment.
One needs to unpack the conceptual underpinnings of these surveys. For example, in the absence of more focused items in the instrument, it is useful to hypothesize the kinds of people who give the President high satisfaction or approval ratings. These could be any of the following: a) those who truly approve of and are satisfied by his actual performance, policies and actions; b) those who approve and are satisfied regardless of performance; c) those who approve and are satisfied out of toleration even if there may be disagreements simply because the alternative is unpalatable; and d) those who approve and are satisfied even if there may be disagreements simply out of loyalty.
There is also a need to dissect the concept of trust. One type consists of those who trust the President on the basis of actual experience. Forming are those who trust him on the basis of faith even without actual experience, or even without actual knowledge.
It will no longer be surprising if the President defies the trend that is usually faced by incumbents who are past their midterms, and will finish his full term with still high satisfaction, approval and trust ratings. But he and his advisers should also be wary that while a Teflon coating may not wear off, it is the frying pan coated with it that may just break. China remains his Achilles heel, and he should listen to the people. And it doesn’t help that his supermajority in Congress appears to be fragile and opportunistic.
https://www.manilatimes.net/beneath-the-teflon/588529/
No comments:
Post a Comment